Macro categories:
On April 26, under the background that the central bank lowered the foreign exchange reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point, the RMB exchange rate was still weak, and A-Shares and commodities continued to decline on that day. If the subsequent A shares are further adjusted, we need to be vigilant against the possibility of risk diffusion, such as the risk of private equity funds touching the redemption line and the pledge of equity of major shareholders. Of course, recently, various ministries and commissions have also been releasing signals to stabilize market confidence. National leaders said they would comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction. Central bank officials also said they would increase the support of prudent monetary policy to the real economy and promote the healthy and stable development of financial markets. The stabilization of short-term risk assets may need to pay attention to several signals: the first is the signal of China's expected stabilization of the economy, the second is the landing of the US Federal Reserve's watch shrinking boots, and the third is the Chinese government's introduction of a stronger steady growth policy.
Be alert to the impact of Fed tightening on global equity assets. On April 21, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continued his previous tough stance in his speech. He said that it is possible to announce a 50 basis point interest rate increase at the May meeting, and there may be similar interest rate increases thereafter. Previously, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March released the expectation of raising interest rates many times and significantly and shrinking the table in advance. It is planned to increase the scale of monthly asset reduction to $95 billion in three months, while the highest scale of the previous round of shrinking table is also $50 billion per month. The last round of shrinkage statement is obviously bad for equity assets, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of global stock index in the future. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with equity assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; The Fed's balance sheet recorded a low correlation with commodities.
At present, the downward pressure on China's economy is still large. On April 18, the Bureau of statistics released China's economic data for March. In the synchronous data from January to March, the growth rate of major sub items of investment, consumption and export slowed down comprehensively. The good news is that the steady growth of infrastructure has begun to exert its force, and it is expected to form a long-term and mild underpinning effect. In the forward-looking data, although the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale has rebounded slightly, social financing is mainly supported by short-term bills, and the growth rate of various loan balances of key financial institutions and medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents have not improved significantly. Under the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of offline consumption and service industry slowed down significantly. More importantly, residents' income and employment are under pressure, and the long-term driving force of the consumer side is further weakened, pointing to that after the resumption of work and production, consumption is difficult to repair quickly. At the meso level, in March, the land acquisition of national real estate enterprises fell by nearly 50% year-on-year, and the sales of excavators and heavy trucks still fell sharply year-on-year. At the micro level, our latest research shows that the recent national downstream construction has decreased year-on-year, but the month on month improvement is weak, and the characteristics of low peak season are significant.
In terms of commodities, under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, it is still necessary to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to pay close attention to the process of the situation in Ukraine and Russia, and be vigilant against the adjustment risks brought by the US dumping of reserves and the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations. Combined with the information that the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still in twists and turns, crude oil and crude oil chain commodities still maintain a high and volatile situation; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth, and with the support of dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; The first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is difficult to solve due to the superposition of high inflation in the United States, and the global precious metal ETF position continues to rise close to the historical high against the background that 10Y US bonds have exceeded 2.9%. We still maintain the view of bargain hunting and long of precious metals.
