Event:
On April 13, Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council, pointing out the deployment of policies and measures to promote consumption, help stabilize the basic economic situation and ensure the improvement of people's livelihood; Increase policy support such as export tax rebate; We will increase financial support for the real economy and guide market players to reduce financing costs.
On April 25, the general office of the State Council issued the "opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting sustainable recovery of consumption", which proposed 20 key measures in five aspects from the perspective of systematic and comprehensive promotion of consumption, coordinated efforts, taking into account the long and short, and comprehensive measures to release consumption potential and promote sustainable recovery of consumption.
On April 26, Xi Jinping chairman presided over the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission to study the issue of comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction, emphasizing that infrastructure is an important support for economic and social development. We should coordinate development and security, optimize the layout, structure, functions and development mode of infrastructure, and build a modern infrastructure system.
On April 27, Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council, pointing out that stabilizing employment is the key support for maintaining economic operation within a reasonable range, and more effective measures should be taken to stabilize employment.
Key investment points:
Since March, China's consumption has increased negatively, real estate sales have been weak, and the unemployment rate has risen significantly. It is expected that the steady growth policy will be increased
In the first quarter of this year, China achieved a year-on-year GDP growth of 4.8%, and there was a gap between the growth rate in the single quarter and the annual growth target (5.5%). Since March, China's consumption has been growing negatively, real estate sales have been weak, and the unemployment rate has risen significantly. It is more difficult to achieve the annual growth target of 5.5%. The pressure of the policy on "stabilizing employment and consumption" has increased. It is expected that the steady growth policy will increase.
With the frequent occurrence of stimulus policies, the Prime Minister stated that the implementation of the steady growth policy should be accelerated, and it is expected that the pace of implementation of follow-up policies will be accelerated
Since the beginning of this year, the counter cyclical adjustment of macro policies has been increasing, and stimulus policies at the levels of consumption, real estate, infrastructure and export have been frequent. In addition, the premier stated during his inspection in Jiangxi that he would speed up the implementation of the steady growth policy, and it is expected that the pace of the implementation of follow-up policies will be accelerated.
The epidemic situation in China has gradually been effectively controlled. With the implementation and acceleration of the steady growth policy, China's economy is expected to bottom out in the second quarter
On April 27, the Shanghai epidemic situation press conference proposed that Shanghai would implement limited opening to areas with basically zero social aspects; From April 28, Changchun gradually lifted the city's social control. With the gradual effective control of the epidemic in China and the acceleration of the implementation of the steady growth policy, China's economy is expected to bottom out in the second quarter.
With the implementation of the steady growth policy, the expectation of broad credit is enhanced, and the bond yield may rise simultaneously
With the accelerated pace of subsequent policy implementation, the demand for physical financing will pick up, the monetary policy will be broad, the credit expectation will be enhanced, and the bond yield may rise simultaneously.
Risk tips
The virus strains continued to expand and the range of variation was not as stable as expected in the national policy
