Compared with the strong profitability of the upstream mining industry and the marginal recovery of the profit margin of the middle and downstream processing and manufacturing industry, the decline of the consumer goods industry is obvious. But this is only temporary. With the increase of consumption promotion policy, it is expected that April will be the low point of consumption profit, and there will be a recovery in the follow-up.
Under the epidemic, the profits of industrial enterprises rose instead of falling. After the outbreak in March, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises from January to March increased by 3.5 percentage points compared with that from January to February. PPI and industrial added value are still positive driving forces, but the strength of the latter is weakened, and the negative impact of profit margin as a drag factor is significantly reduced compared with that from January to February. Under the fiscal tax reduction and fee reduction, the cost rate of manufacturing and private enterprises decreased most significantly.
The consumer goods industry was most affected by the epidemic, and the profit margin of the manufacturing industry improved. From January to March this year, only the profit growth rate and profit margin of consumer goods industry decreased compared with that from January to February. Among them, the profit margin of wine, beverage and refined tea industry decreased most significantly, which is mainly related to the low consumption of social groups under the epidemic. Infrastructure development has driven the improvement of the profits of most industries in the manufacturing industry, especially transportation equipment.
The profit margin of middle and lower reaches enterprises is far from returning to the same period last year. Compared with January to March last year, 23 of the 28 industries in manufacturing, processing and consumer goods saw a decline in profit margins, and all 8 industries in manufacturing fell. Only the upstream mining industry benefited from the rise in commodity prices driven by the Russian Ukrainian war, and the profit margins of the five industries increased year-on-year, of which coal mining and oil and gas mining increased by more than 10 percentage points.
The consumer goods industry will not be depressed all the time, and it is expected to pick up after April. With the continuous increase of consumption promotion policies and the issuance of local consumption vouchers, we believe that April will be the bottom of the profits of the consumer goods industry, and then there will be a recovery, but the profit margin should reach the level of the same period last year, which depends on the obvious improvement of the epidemic situation.
Risk factors: the epidemic continues to worsen and the implementation of policies is not sufficient
