The marginal growth rate of corporate profits and revenue increased. In the first quarter, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits increased from 5% to 8.5%, and compared with the three-year average growth rate in 2019, it fell from 21.8% to 17.7%. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of enterprise operating revenue fell from 13.9% to 12.7%. Under the action of the base, the profit growth margin of enterprises rises, but from the three-year average growth rate, the revenue and profit slow down.
The profit margin rose month on month and fell year on year. The production of industrial enterprises slowed down affected by the epidemic, and the upward pressure on raw material prices continued. The prices of energy, nonferrous metals and other bulk commodities fluctuated at a high level, and PPI entered the decline channel, but the decline rate slowed down significantly, and the cost side of enterprises continued to be under pressure. The growth rate of the production side did not rise significantly month on month. Although the Spring Festival factor gradually subsided, the emergence of the epidemic in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Jilin Province slowed down the production growth.
The cost side of the enterprise continued to rise, the cost fell, the accounts receivable fell again, and the number of employees fell. The price of raw materials continues to be high, and the problem of cost rigidity of enterprises continues. Under the policies of tax reduction and fee reduction and enterprise rescue, the pressure drop on the cost side has appeared. The average number of workers employed by industrial enterprises updated to February has changed from - 0.3% at the end of the year to 0.4% year-on-year. However, due to the impact of the epidemic and sealing policies, the performance is expected to be weak in March.
The profit performance of state-owned enterprises is still relatively strongest, and the relative pressure of private enterprises is greater. The rise in the price of upstream raw materials puts greater pressure on small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, highlights the problem of uneven profit distribution, has a certain impact on the industrial chain and transportation, and some export industrial enterprises may face certain pressure. The asset liability ratio of most types of enterprises increased slightly, and the rise of private enterprises was relatively fast.
The profit of mining industry is the main driving item, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water and manufacturing base also rise. The profit growth of the mining industry rebounded, the profit growth of coal mining and washing industry increased the fastest, the profit growth of non-ferrous mining also increased significantly, and the profit of ferrous metal mining increased slightly, mainly due to the weakening of the role of high base.
The upstream, middle and downstream profits of the manufacturing industry are diluted. The middle and lower reaches are the bearers of upstream price increases. In terms of the average growth rate in the past three years, the manufacturing of equipment in the midstream fell as a whole, and the manufacturing of automobile, computer, communication and other electronic equipment in the downstream fell significantly.
The inventory growth rate of industrial enterprises continued to rise, and the new inventory in the month was still high. Affected by the epidemic, the level of industrial production and marketing links has decreased, the superimposed demand is weak, the enterprise inventory has accumulated, and the price rise has also partially driven the increase of inventory value. In April, the transportation and industrial chain are still blocked, and the inventory growth may still rise. The pressure on the cost side of industrial enterprises is expected to continue, the pressure of imported inflation will increase, and the policy support for tax reduction and fee reduction of manufacturing industry and the relief of small and medium-sized enterprises will also be maintained. We will pay attention to whether the process of returning to work and production after the epidemic can be rapidly improved, and the imbalance and differentiation among industries will continue.
Risk factors: the production and operation of the enterprise is less than expected, the price of upstream raw materials is higher than expected, and the spread and duration of the epidemic are longer than expected.
