Investment suggestion: at present, we judge that the market probability is already in the bottom range, but the market environment is more complex due to high inflation and repeated epidemics. We suggest paying attention to these directions: (1) cash assets. For example: high dividend and high dividend assets such as coal, real estate, banks, (Chinese prefix) construction, hydropower and communication operators; (2) Independent of the macroeconomic cycle, the dilemma reversed the sector. For example, the pig breeding sector with the reversal of industrial cycle; (3) A sector with booming production and marketing. In the next 1-2 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (4) New energy and other track stocks. New energy and other track stocks are still in the stage of industrial explosion, and there are still certain investment opportunities, focusing on track stocks with performance support.
Focus on hot topics: (1) speed up the construction of digital government, and the future of digital economy can be expected. On April 19, the 25th meeting of the Central Committee for comprehensively deepening reform deliberated and adopted the guiding opinions on strengthening the construction of digital government. We believe that under the strategy of comprehensively implementing the network power, digital government is the general trend. The development of digital economy and other related industries represented by digital government can be expected in the future. Related objects include: tax software, Linewell Software Co.Ltd(603636) and Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) etc. (2) There may be some opportunities for securities companies to implement the personal pension system. On April 21, in order to promote the construction of multi-level and multi pillar old-age insurance system, promote the sustainable development of the old-age insurance system and meet the growing diversified old-age insurance needs of the people, the general office of the State Council issued opinions on promoting the development of individual pensions. Compared with the proportion of overseas third pillar pensions, there is still much room for development in China. In addition, with its preferential tax policies, broad scope of application and high account value, personal pension accounts will usher in rapid development in the future, and there are also certain opportunities in insurance, securities and other sectors. Related targets include China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) and China stock market news. (3) Tax rebate support will be strengthened, and the export industrial chain may benefit from the depreciation of RMB exchange rate. On April 23, the State Administration of Taxation and other ten departments issued a notice on Further Strengthening the support of export tax rebate and promoting the stable development of foreign trade. Since 2022, the overseas market has resumed work and production, while China has been affected by the scattered epidemic, and the uncertainty of industrial production has deepened, resulting in the weakening of China’s export growth momentum in the near future. However, with the increase of tax rebate support and the impact of RMB exchange rate depreciation, we believe that there may be some game opportunities in the export industry chain in the short term, such as textile and clothing, home appliances, furniture and other related sectors may benefit. Relevant targets include: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) and Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , etc.
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics from April 18 to April 22, the top gainers were yellow rice wine, textile manufacturing, clothing and home textiles, livestock and poultry breeding and Geely Group. The main reason is the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate and the impact of the state’s policies to promote consumption, and the relevant sectors are sought after. The top five declines were iron ore, chemical raw materials, covid-19 specific drugs, vaccines and new urbanization, mainly due to the high current valuation of relevant concept sectors and the obvious adjustment of recent capital tightening.
From April 18 to April 22, the top five gainers in shenwanyi industry last week were textile and clothing, beauty care, public utilities, food and beverage and commercial retail; The top five declines were real estate, steel, medicine and biology, building materials and social services. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are beauty care, textile and clothing, comprehensive, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and household appliances. The top five cumulative net outflows are medicine and biology, basic chemical industry, building decoration, non-ferrous metals and mechanical equipment.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; The risk of repeated outbreaks exceeded expectations.
