Key investment points
This week's view: the central bank pointed out at its recent meeting that the uncertainty facing China's economic growth has further increased. Due to the superposition of multiple adverse factors, the current economic operation is still facing great pressure. The meeting called for maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promoting the reduction of comprehensive financing costs, and providing a good monetary and financial environment for coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. We believe that this is a practical measure taken by the central bank to help enterprises reduce the burden in view of the current great difficulties in the operation of the real economy. More targeted and accurate supporting policies are expected to be introduced. The central bank requires that on the basis of earnestly implementing the policies already issued, we should further strengthen our work, further increase our support for the real economy, and maintain market stability and economic stability. We believe that the central bank's emphasis on increasing support this time shows its determination to urge the implementation of the steady growth policy. The cumulative effect of subsequent policies will gradually appear and release, and the development of the market will tend to be positive. At present, the severe epidemic situation and the weak real estate market are still the main pressure restricting economic growth. The state has repeatedly stressed the need to coordinate economic development and epidemic prevention and control, but many difficulties still need to be overcome to achieve this goal, especially the consumption and production activities of residents and enterprises in the epidemic area are impacted, which is not only affected by the objective factors of the background of epidemic prevention, but also the continuous downturn of subjective will. Last week, the central bank and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued 23 measures to further implement the steady growth policy, which will help stabilize China's demand and guide the recovery of market confidence. Due to the lack of new funds and hot spots in the stock market recently, it is more likely to maintain the oscillatory trend. The current changes in food and energy prices are more affected by the international situation and sentiment. It is suggested to focus on the agriculture and energy sectors in the short term. Affected by the epidemic, the service industry has been greatly impacted. The implementation of the national rescue policy will help relevant enterprises through difficult times. After the epidemic is over, catering, tourism, film and other sectors are expected to recover significantly. Under the background of strong certainty of China's economic growth, we can pay long-term attention to the stable growth sectors, such as infrastructure, finance, real estate, building materials, consumption, etc. Due to the important reform of the pension system, banks, insurance sectors and fund markets will benefit.
Hot spots in China: first, the recent meeting of the central bank proposed to implement a sound monetary policy, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs, and provide a good monetary and financial environment for the overall prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development. 2、 The central bank and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued 23 measures to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development. 3、 The State Council issued opinions on promoting the development of individual pensions and improved the multi-level and multi pillar old-age insurance system.
International hot spots: first, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year. 2、 Japan's trade deficit reached a new high and the yen depreciated sharply. 3、 US Federal Reserve Powell hinted that it would increase the single interest rate increase from 25 basis points to 50 basis points, and the expectation of substantial interest rate increase caused the continuous decline of New York stock market.
Last week's high-frequency data tracking: last week, the Shanghai stock index fell 3.87% to close at 308692 points, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.19% to close at 401325 points, and the gem index fell 6.66% to close at 229660 points.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation in China has deteriorated beyond expectations; The geopolitical situation continued to stir the market.
