Core view
On April 26, the meeting of the Chinese Finance Committee clearly pointed out that promoting the construction of modern infrastructure system is a long-term and current move. The former is to implement and refine the requirements of the 14th five year plan and serve medium and long-term economic and industrial development, while the latter is a fundamental move to deal with the triple pressure in the short term and the impact of the epidemic; We raised the forecast of infrastructure investment (excluding power), and it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the whole year will reach 7%, and Q3 may maintain a double-digit growth.
The meeting of the Chinese finance committee points to the modern infrastructure system
On April 26, the meeting of the Chinese Finance Committee made it clear to comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and build a modern infrastructure system, and put forward a series of important deployment around all aspects of the construction of modern infrastructure system, mainly in five aspects.
1) the modern infrastructure system is the basis for building a socialist modernization system in an all-round way. It is of great significance for ensuring national security, unblocking China's great cycle, promoting China's international double cycle, expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development.
2) all regions and departments are required to understand the spirit of the meeting of the Chinese Finance Committee and jointly promote the implementation of decision-making.
3) the construction of modern infrastructure system should focus on the requirements of "long-term, moderately advanced, scientific planning, multi wheel drive and efficiency", so as to realize the unity of economic, social, ecological and people's livelihood effects.
4) the meeting defined the development direction of modern infrastructure system and strengthened the construction of network infrastructure, main transportation framework, low-carbon energy base, major scientific and technological infrastructure, comprehensive transportation hub and collection and distribution system, urban infrastructure, rural agricultural infrastructure and national security infrastructure.
5) improve the mechanism and strengthen the guarantee of infrastructure construction. In terms of system, establish a coordination mechanism for major infrastructure construction, coordinate resources and strengthen factor guarantee; In terms of funds, increase financial investment, broaden long-term sources of funds, and promote the cooperation between the government and social capital.
How to interpret the China Finance Committee meeting? Focus on the long term and give consideration to the current situation
How to interpret the current meeting of China Finance Committee? Focus on the long term and take into account the current situation. Building a modern infrastructure system is not a new concept. As early as the 14th five year plan, it clearly put forward the idea of "comprehensively promoting the construction of traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure, and building a systematic, efficient, practical, intelligent, green, safe and reliable modern infrastructure system", and put forward the corresponding national major projects. From this perspective, Promoting the construction of modern infrastructure system is a long-term strategic layout of China. It is gradually promoted with the situation of kinetic energy switching, industrial transformation and structural optimization. It is not an emerging response policy based on short-term pressure. However, considering the triple pressure and the impact of the epidemic, the pressure on stabilizing growth and ensuring employment has increased significantly,
We believe that the proposal to promote modern infrastructure construction at the current time point also has the meaning of taking into account the current situation: first, the impact of the epidemic disturbance on infrastructure is limited. We made a detailed analysis of the high growth rate of infrastructure construction of 8.8% in the first quarter in the report "target or switch to employment protection" on April 18. The main reason is that the infrastructure investment in areas with serious epidemic such as Shanghai and Jilin accounts for a relatively small proportion in the country, the regional attribute of infrastructure supply chain is strong, and the risk of interruption of supply of raw materials is small.
Secondly, infrastructure construction is an important starting point for stabilizing employment. The unemployment rate surveyed in March reached 5.8%, exceeding the threshold of 5.5%, which does not fully reflect the disturbance effect of the epidemic. Historical experience shows that boosting infrastructure plays an important role in driving China's employment. We expect that macro policies in the second quarter will pay more attention to employment objectives and actively promote infrastructure development in addition to a series of policies to protect market players, which will help further stabilize employment from the perspective of creating demand.
Third, the medium and long-term trend is determined, and it is feasible to accelerate infrastructure investment in the short term. The direction of medium and long-term economic transformation, industrial development and structural optimization is relatively certain. Its internal needs determine that there should be a modern infrastructure system as the basic guarantee. It is feasible to moderately advance and accelerate the construction on the premise of long-term and scientific planning.
Infrastructure investment: policy and acceleration resonate, raising the annual forecast to 7%
Raise the annual infrastructure investment forecast to 7%. On the one hand, after the meeting of the Chinese Finance Committee, we expect that all localities and regions will work together to promote the construction of modern infrastructure system, and the accelerated promotion and implementation of transportation, water conservancy, logistics and urban infrastructure will increase the scale of infrastructure investment throughout the year. On the other hand, the epidemic in the second quarter has little impact on infrastructure. We expect that the epidemic disturbance will decline around June and the economy will enter a gradual repair trend. Considering the low base in the second half of 2021, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the second half of 2022 will remain at a high level. Especially after the decline of epidemic disturbance, the acceleration logic of infrastructure projects will actively stimulate the infrastructure investment industry, and the Q3 probability is above double-digit growth rate. Based on the impact of comprehensive policies, acceleration and base, we raised the year-on-year forecast of infrastructure investment (excluding power) to 7% (previously predicted to be 4%). With the support of new energy infrastructure and new infrastructure, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure (including power) reached about 9%. Risk tip: the implementation of the policy was less than expected, the macro policy was tightened more than expected, and extreme weather broke out on a large scale
