Event: the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission stressed that we should comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and build a modern infrastructure system to lay a solid foundation for building a modern socialist country in an all-round way.
Core conclusion: the importance of infrastructure has been comprehensively improved and the medium and long-term space has been opened, which continues to prompt a high increase in the probability of infrastructure this year, about 8% or even higher in the whole year. Pay close attention to the investment opportunities in the infrastructure chain, especially the new safe infrastructure.
1. In terms of positioning, the theme of the meeting of the finance and Economics Committee has always been an important investment clue in the market. This meeting highlights the importance of infrastructure and opens up medium and long-term space for infrastructure. The central financial and Economic Commission is the Party Central Committee's organization responsible for top-level design, overall layout, overall coordination, overall promotion and supervision of implementation in the economic field. This meeting also directly pointed out that "since the 19th national congress, the central financial and Economic Commission has deeply studied a number of major issues related to the fundamental and long-term, and played a strategic guiding role". From the 11 meetings of the finance and Economics Committee since 2018, each theme has basically become the focus of follow-up China's economic work and the core main line of the market. For example, the theme of the 10th (August 21) is common prosperity, the 9th (March 21) is double carbon and platform economy, and the 8th (September 20) is double cycle, The 7th (April 20) was "to study some major issues related to the national medium and long-term economic and social development strategy". This meeting is devoted to strengthening infrastructure, which requires "comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction, building a modern infrastructure system and laying a solid foundation for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way". It highlights the importance of infrastructure and points out that infrastructure is expected to become a key economic task and market investment clue for a long time to come.
2. In terms of direction, it continues to require "accelerating the construction of new infrastructure and improving the level of traditional infrastructure", and newly emphasizes "strengthening the construction of national security infrastructure", pointing to that the infrastructure is expected to increase both in quantity and quality.
> continue to require the simultaneous development of new and old infrastructure: the meeting pointed out that "based on the long term, we should strengthen the support of infrastructure development for land and space development and protection, productivity layout and major national strategies, accelerate the construction of new infrastructure and improve the level of traditional infrastructure". In recent years, China's infrastructure has made great progress, but the overall level still has great room for improvement. From the perspective of international comparison, China's railway line density in 2019 is 1.1 km / 100 square kilometers, which is still lower than that of the United States; According to the global competitiveness report of the world economic forum, China's aviation and port service efficiency rank lower; From the perspective of internal structure, there is a huge gap between urban and rural areas and regions. For example, the urban water use rate is 99%, but only about 84% in rural areas. The restrictions of infrastructure on the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and regions still exist. On this basis, the state emphasizes the need to improve the level of traditional infrastructure. We understand that on the one hand, it lies in the supplement of quantity, that is, the infrastructure deficiencies in rural areas, central and western regions and some fields; On the other hand, we should also pay attention to the improvement of quality, such as road quality, service efficiency, safety and stability of water and power supply, etc.
> new emphasis on the national security attribute of infrastructure: the meeting pointed out that "compared with the needs of national development and security, China's infrastructure does not meet the needs of national development and security. Comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction is of great significance to ensure national security, unblock China's big cycle, promote China's International double cycle, expand domestic demand and promote high-quality development; we should pay attention to efficiency, and calculate both the economic account and the comprehensive account". In contrast, the previous discussions on infrastructure in the central document and the market were mainly based on the perspective of economic development and demand. This time, the importance of national security was newly enhanced, and it was also directly pointed out that "we should strengthen the construction of national security infrastructure and speed up the ability to deal with extreme situations".
3. In terms of funds, the meeting emphasized "broadening long-term fund-raising channels and increasing financial investment", and paid attention to the possible relaxation of urban investment and financing platform. The meeting pointed out that "we should strengthen the guarantee of resource elements such as land use, sea use and energy use; we should meet the financing needs of infrastructure construction, broaden long-term financing channels, increase financial investment and better focus on ensuring the capital needs of national major infrastructure construction". It is pointed out that the support of various elements such as capital and land required for infrastructure construction will be strengthened. In the short term, on April 18, the central bank and the safe issued 23 financial measures to support the real economy, of which Article 11 pointed out that "we should ensure the reasonable financing needs of financing platform companies in accordance with the market-oriented principle on the premise of controllable risk and compliance according to law, and should not blindly withdraw loans, suppress loans or stop loans, so as to ensure the smooth implementation of projects under construction", which may mean that the financing environment of local urban investment platforms will be improved, Constraints on infrastructure development will also be reduced.
4. In terms of transportation, energy, water conservancy and pipe network, we should "focus on networking, network supplement and chain strengthening", and it is suggested to pay close attention to safety infrastructure. The meeting pointed out that "we should strengthen the construction of network infrastructure such as transportation, energy and water conservancy, and focus on networking, supplementary network and strong chain", including the main framework of national comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network, distributed smart grid, new green and low-carbon energy base, industrial upgrading infrastructure such as information, science, technology and logistics, urban agglomeration transportation integration, and agricultural and rural infrastructure construction, National security infrastructure construction and other subdivided directions point to the comprehensive development of follow-up infrastructure in various fields. Among them, security infrastructure, such as key information infrastructure, disaster prevention and control, infectious disease prevention and control and other fields, deserve special attention.
5. On the whole, we continue to remind that "infrastructure liberalization" is the main means of steady growth this year. The probability of infrastructure construction has increased this year, about 8% or even higher in the whole year. At the beginning of the year, we made a special report on the high growth rate of infrastructure construction in 2022. What are the driving points It has been comprehensively estimated that in order to achieve the growth target of 5.5% this year, infrastructure investment may need to be about 8% or higher. According to the data, the growth rate of infrastructure construction in the first quarter has reached 10.5%, and the growth rate in March is close to 12%. In an environment where the impact of this round of epidemic is beyond expectations, the necessity of "infrastructure release" is more prominent.
6. In addition, the meeting asked all regions and departments to "take the responsibility actively, act actively, correct errors in time if there are problems, and guide market expectations", further pointing out that the end of the policy has been realized, and the steady growth policy is expected to accelerate the implementation. The meeting pointed out that "all regions and departments should take the responsibility and act actively to jointly promote the implementation of decision-making and deployment; do a good job in comprehensive balance and correct errors in time if there are problems; enhance the effectiveness of implementation and evaluate the implementation results in all aspects with practical results; guide market expectations, clarify policy guidance and principles, and stabilize market confidence".
Risk warning: unexpected changes in epidemic situation, policy strength, external environment, etc
