1. Comparison of the "three pillars" of the pension system between China and the United States
Comparison between China and the United States: the United States is one of the earliest countries in the world to implement the old-age insurance system. After long-term development and improvement, it has formed a classic "three pillar" old-age insurance system: national compulsory old-age insurance, employer pension plan and personal savings old-age insurance. Similar to the United States, China's pension system is also composed of three pillars: the basic pension system, the enterprise supplementary pension system and the individual savings pension system. However, there are differences in the core of the "three pillars" between China and the United States. Among them, the "first pillar" of China's endowment insurance has the characteristics of "combination of unified accounts", that is, the combination of social overall planning and individual payment accounts, which is quite different from the "first pillar" of the United States.
Comparison 2 between China and the United States: from the comparison of the scale of the three pillars, there are great differences between China and the United States. The second and third pillars of the United States are the mainstay of the entire pension system, accounting for 57.9% and 35.4% respectively. In China, the first pillar occupies an absolutely dominant position, accounting for 62%, which also reflects the great pressure of the government on pension, while the third pillar accounts for almost zero. The formal introduction of individual pension will gradually improve the current situation.
Comparison 3 between China and the United States: from the perspective of the annual upper limit of initial funds in IRA accounts, the ratio of the upper limit of individual pension accounts / per capita disposable income in China and the United States is relatively close. At the beginning of the establishment of IRA Account (1974), the upper limit of funds that participants can deposit in the account is $2000 per year, and the upper limit of individual pension account amount / per capita disposable income in the United States is 0.39. The maximum amount that IRA can pay was raised to US $3000 in 2002, US $5000 in 2008 and US $6000 in 2012. In China, according to the opinions of the general office of the State Council on promoting the development of individual pensions, the upper limit of participants' annual payment of individual pensions is 12000 yuan. The proportion of the upper limit of individual pension account amount / per capita disposable income in China is 0.34. According to the opinions, the Ministry of human resources and social security and the Ministry of Finance timely adjust the upper limit of payment according to the level of economic and social development and the development of multi-level and multi pillar old-age insurance system.
2. Learn from the development of American IRA, how to calculate the growth scale and market rhythm of China's third pillar pension?
At present, China's third pillar is in its infancy, and there is great room for improvement in its development scale. There are two main steps in our thinking of calculating the pension. The first step is to calculate the overall pension scale, using the method of linear fitting to calculate the overall scale from 2022 to 2042. The second step is to predict the scale of the third pillar. Referring to the proportion of the development of the third pillar pension market in the United States, it is estimated that the scale of the third pillar will reach 9.7 trillion by 2042.
When measuring the rhythm of the "third pillar" entering the stock market, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the restrictions of China and the rhythm of American IRA entering the market. China's restrictions on the market entry scale of the "third pillar" of pensions can refer to the current quota conditions for the investment in stocks of the "first and second pillars" in China. The asset allocation of China's pension investment is conservative. The national social security fund was the first to invest in the stock market. It entered the market in 2001, with a maximum limit of 40%. Subsequently, the enterprise annuity was allowed to enter the market for investment in 2007, with a maximum limit of 30% (the Ministry of human resources and social security issued a notice to increase the limit ratio to 40% at the end of 2020) The upper limit of investment in the stock insurance market in 2015 is 30%. We are calculating the maximum investment limit of the third pillar in the stock market, and we also use 30% as the market entry limit of the "third pillar". Combined with the existing restrictions and referring to the market entry growth rate in the initial stage of the development of American IRA (19801990), the market entry scale gradually developed from 5% to 26%. Therefore, we predict that the market scale of China's individual pension can exceed 500 billion in 2031.
3. From the experience of the United States, where is the way of pension management?
Compared with American personal pension financial products, there are two obvious differences. First, the term of China's personal pension financial products is relatively short, and Bank Of China Limited(601988) series, fund series and pension security management products are mainly within 5 years. In contrast, US pension accounts have redemption restrictions and are often held for a long time. Second, the asset allocation of China's pension financial products is relatively conservative, mainly fixed income products, while the investment style of American pension products is more radical and the proportion of equity is higher. In terms of income, most of the popular pension financial products of China's insurance system and banking system have a yield of about 3-5%; The 10-year long-term annualized return rate of American pension target fund can be close to 8-9%, and the long-term return rate is significantly higher than that of Chinese pension financial products.
At the initial stage of the pilot project, China mainly pursues steady and long-term income, which is conducive to the promotion of individual pensions. The opinions put forward that "the funds in the personal pension fund account are used to purchase financial products that meet the preferences of different investors and meet the requirements of safe, mature and stable operation, standardized target and long-term preservation, such as bank financial management, savings deposits, commercial endowment insurance and public funds, which can be selected by participants". However, in the long run, drawing on the experience of American IRA, equity and mixed asset management products may become the main allocation direction of the three pillars. The construction of institutional investment research integration and the promotion ability of products directly determine its market share. Benefit the head organization with investment research integration, risk management and leading product line.
Risk tip: the policy is less than expected, the issuance of pension products is less than expected, and the measurement deviation risk of industry scale; There is a risk that the information and data used in the research report are not updated in time.
