Investment suggestion: we judge that the A-share market can still achieve positive returns in the first quarter of 2022, but the index performance may not be as good as that in 2021, and there is a structural market. We recommend focusing on high growth tracks with performance certainty. Recommended configuration: (1) carbon neutralization theme. Nowadays, China is fully promoting the goal of “carbon neutralization”. Clean energy such as scenery is accelerating to replace traditional energy. We can pay attention to new energy, energy storage, energy conservation and environmental protection. (2) New economic theme. High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to focus on chip semiconductors with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid industry growth, high-end intelligent manufacturing, etc. (3) Emerging consumption themes. At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliances sectors. (4) Epidemic Damage theme. With the further improvement of vaccination rates in developing countries such as Africa, Mexico and Brazil, the global epidemic is expected to be further controlled. There is a valuation and repair power in the epidemic damaged plate, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airports, tourism, hotels, cinemas, etc.
Focus on hot topics: (1) the Ministry of industry and information technology and other four departments jointly issued the notice on the decline of national subsidies for new energy, which is a turning point for automobile enterprises to compete or welcome the new. Recently, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022. In the short term, the decline of subsidies combined with the price rise of upstream raw materials and batteries and “lack of core” may restrict the development of new energy vehicle market. However, in the long run, with the increasing demand, the decline of subsidies has a limited impact on new energy vehicle manufacturers, especially leading manufacturers. On the contrary, it can promote the transformation and upgrading of vehicle enterprises and improve their R & D ability and brand ability. It is recommended to pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . (2) The Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is heating up, and the market accelerates the style switching. On January 5, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in December 2021, which showed that the Federal Reserve may raise the federal fund interest rate in advance and start the balance sheet reduction process thereafter. It is expected that the global liquidity may be further tightened in 2022, and the rotation of market style will also be accelerated. The differentiation of high prosperity track stocks may continue to intensify, and the probability will be adjusted. It is suggested to pay attention to the defensive industry sector, building materials, household appliances, such as Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) . (3) Multi sectoral intensive deployment to promote consumption, and the prosperity of emerging consumption is expected to improve. On January 10, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly launched the “2022 national online annual goods Festival”. Under the policy tone of “steady growth” in 2022, the policy is expected to further stimulate consumption and stimulate consumption with the arrival of the Spring Festival. The consumption boom is expected to pick up. Therefore, it is suggested to track: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and other related targets.
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics last week, the top gainers were oil and gas pipeline network, cement manufacturing, sponge City, port and small base station. Affected by the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, the market style switching accelerated and turned to marginal stocks. The top five declines were aerospace equipment, photovoltaic inverter, power supply equipment, lithium extraction from Salt Lake and aviation equipment. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept plates is high, and the recent tightening of funds has led to significant adjustment.
From January 3 to January 7, among shenwanyi industries, the top five gainers last week were real estate, steel, building materials, banking and petroleum and petrochemical; The top five declines were power equipment, national defense and military industry, public utilities, non-ferrous metals and electronics. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are banks, real estate, household appliances, building decoration and steel; The top five cumulative net outflows are power equipment, electronics, utilities, basic chemicals and pharmaceutical biology.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; Uncertainty about the global epidemic.
