[industry concern] in 2022, the industry track will focus on “double carbon + steady growth” + “intelligence”. Looking back on the past decade, we find that policy and demand are the most critical to the drive of the industrial track. At the structural level, when the overall market situation is down, the attention to the policy driven track is more valuable; When the overall market rises, the importance of demand highlights. At the track level, the intersection driven by the “double carbon + steady growth” policy in 2022 is the green power industry chain; The intersection of demand driven is intelligence. We believe that the track selection caused by the supply disturbance in 2022 is biased towards the short term. In the long term, we still grasp the policy driven and demand driven, focusing on the track in the accelerated growth period. “Intelligence” is the preferred industrial track direction for A-Shares in 2022. We took the lead in proposing the layout of “one body and two wings” of intelligent industrial track, with intelligent automobile industry chain as the main body, intelligent manufacturing equipment (military industry chain, AR / VR, intelligent numerical control, industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) ) and digital economy (network security, digital twin (including meta universe) and industrial Internet) as the two wings. At the same time, driven by the expectation of steady growth, priority is given to focusing on the long logic track, and the green power industry chain with power as the core is still the top priority.
[market interpretation] in terms of market performance, since the beginning of the year, the real estate chain, airport, petroleum and petrochemical chain, coal chain and textile and clothing chain have led the increase, rising by 5.77%, 3.32%, 3.27%, 2.57% and 2.45% respectively; Photovoltaic chain, wind power chain, semiconductor chain, military chain and UHV decreased significantly, down 9.23%, 8.80%, 8.43%, 7.96% and 6.13% respectively. On the whole, under the background of steady growth policy, the possibility of 2022q1 infrastructure construction exceeding expectations is not small, and the traditional infrastructure chain has regained its attention; Some PPI links benefit from large infrastructure, and the expectation is also up; In addition, the overall decline of the new infrastructure chain represented by urban rail transit, 5g, IDC and artificial intelligence was smaller than that of other sectors and was more resistant to decline. Meanwhile, based on the concerns about the growth valuation advance of some sectors and the disturbance of high growth sectors due to overseas uncertainty, high growth overvalued industries such as new energy and new energy vehicle chain fell seriously.
[profit forecast, valuation and cost performance] in January Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) , the marginal profit forecast of shipping port and photoresist increased significantly. The profit forecast for 2021 and 2022 changed by 24.43% and 31.60%, 4.58% and 43.06%, 4.85% and 16.96% respectively. At the valuation level, represented by the new energy chain, the historical scores of UHV, nuclear power, photovoltaic and charging pile for three years are relatively high, reaching 100%, 94.10%, 86.40% and 78.70% respectively; The current valuation of the automobile chain is also relatively high, at the 89% quantile in the past three years. In addition, from the perspective of pe-g, although the absolute valuation of high-end manufacturing, military industry and new energy is high, it still has a certain valuation profit and cost performance; At present, the peg of medical and pharmaceutical industries represented by innovative drugs, smart medicine and generic drugs and some consumer industries such as food and beverage and express delivery are significantly higher.
[Landscape] in recent January, the prosperity of major industries has been differentiated. Intelligence, high-end manufacturing, national defense and military industry and new energy infrastructure are expected to continue high prosperity. Infrastructure, consumption and medicine are expected to usher in a reversal of difficulties, while coal, steel and other high energy consuming products may decline.
1) the boom of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and semiconductor chains in the high-end manufacturing chain remained high. Among them, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) produced 31900 units in November, with a month on month increase of 11.93%, a year-on-year increase of 27.90%, and a significant increase of 17.30pct over the previous month; In terms of semiconductors, the Philadelphia Semiconductor index continued to fluctuate at a high level, and the chip delivery time continued to extend, reaching 23.16 weeks in December. The supply and demand gap is still large.
2) in terms of infrastructure chain, from the perspective of meso prosperity, the marginal improvement of new infrastructure prosperity is higher than that of traditional infrastructure. Among them, the new infrastructure is dominated by UHV. In November, the completed investment in power grid infrastructure totaled 4.10% year-on-year, a significant increase of 3.0pct over the previous month. In terms of traditional infrastructure, represented by Shanghai and Anhui, the investment amount of major projects in some regions in 2022 is much higher than that in 2021. Under incomplete statistics, the year-on-year increase in Shanghai has exceeded 80%, and the possibility of Q1 construction exceeding expectations is not small.
3) in terms of PPI chain, the prosperity of nonferrous metals represented by electrolytic aluminum and chemicals represented by urea has increased significantly recently. The price of aluminum ingots rose sharply. On January 10, the quotation of 98.5% aluminum ingots and A00 aluminum ingots increased by 34.85% and 35.01% respectively year-on-year, more than 4 percentage points higher than that at the end of the year. At the same time, the resumption of production was gradually promoted, and the commencement continued to pick up. The prices of urea and PTA increased by 2.98% and 4.18% respectively month on month compared with the end of the year, of which the operating rate of urea increased significantly by 1.54 PCT month on month compared with the end of the year. Due to the expected production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games or the accumulated reservoir demand, the demand is expected to rise and the boom will be supported again.
4) yuan universe continues to heat up, and the boom of operating terminals (smart wear) has risen sharply in recent months. In November, the output of smart watches increased by 50pct compared with the previous month, and the high penetration rate of steam VR users increased slightly.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation changes beyond expectations; The policy promotion was less than expected
