Macro categories:
Us CPI rose 7% year-on-year in December. It has set a new high in nearly 40 years. At present, part of the reason why the Fed exceeds the expected hawkish signal is that it is worried about the formation of persistent inflation and hopes to achieve the goal of controlling inflation by guiding tightening expectations. Looking back on the last round of interest rate hike cycle, in the game stage of interest rate hike expectation (first interest rate hike - interest rate hike landing), the strength of interest rate hike expectation was accompanied by the strength of US dollar index, while the emerging market stock index, gold, crude oil and CRB composite index recorded adjustments (at least the rise and fall performance at the monthly level), US stocks fluctuated, and US bond interest rates did not show an obvious upward trend. After the fact that the interest rate increase was implemented, the US bond interest rate trend rose, the US dollar index peaked and fell, the emerging market stock index and bulk commodities stabilized and rebounded, and gold did not adjust significantly. Before inflation actually falls, it is not ruled out that the tightening expectation will further strengthen and even release a stronger tightening signal at the interest rate meeting in January. Therefore, we need to be vigilant against the risk of short-term adjustment. However, in the long run, on the one hand, the high base will drive inflation to peak and fall. On the other hand, high-frequency data show that the economy is being affected by the epidemic. Therefore, we expect that the actual number of interest rate increases during the year will be less than three times that set by the current market.
China's "bottom of demand" was further confirmed. After the slowdown in the growth rate of land acquisition by developers in December, the leading indicator continued to verify the logic of economic stabilization and recovery in December 2021. In December, the stock of social financing scale increased by 10.3% year-on-year, recording an increase for two consecutive months, of which the increase of government bonds by 459.2 billion year-on-year was the main contribution. In addition, the year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 were 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. We expect that the real estate construction cycle will gradually stabilize and improve in the first quarter of this year. Considering the pre development force of infrastructure (about 500 billion new investment per month from January to March last year, and few special bonds from January to March last year), as well as the dual width pattern of currency and finance in the first quarter, we believe that domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) can choose to bargain long.
Generally speaking, under the background of monetary marginal loosening, we are relatively friendly to China's stock index. We continue to be optimistic about China's stock index in the first quarter of this year; The improvement of China's economic expectations, especially the stabilization and recovery of real estate and infrastructure, is conducive to domestic demand industrial products with high correlation; Industrial products with external demand are not yet clear. On the one hand, they face the risk of demand impact caused by overseas epidemic. On the other hand, there is still a gap between supply and demand of natural gas in Europe. Electricity prices still rely on natural gas supply in the short term, and the support brought by production reduction remains.
Strategy (strength ranking): bargain hunting and multi matching of the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC); Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) can still be matched on bargain hunting; National debt, industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals) and neutral precious metals;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; Deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait.
