M2 and M1 rebounded together, but the demand recovery is still slow; Loan data show that the demand for entity financing is still weak; At the end of the year, the fiscal deposit expenditure will accelerate, and the reserve capacity will grow steadily next year; Credit weakened, and the proportion of direct financing in new social finance increased.
M2 and M1 rebounded together, but the recovery of demand is still slow. M2 increased by 9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month. Fiscal expenditure increased steadily in December, and the transfer of fiscal deposits may promote the growth of M2 to a certain extent. M1 increased by 3.5% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month. Under the influence of the Spring Festival, manufacturing enterprises had a strong willingness to replenish inventory in that month, or formed a certain support for M1 growth. In addition, the rebound of M1 growth rate may be related to the marginal relaxation of real estate policies in some regions. At the end of December, the unit current deposit increased by 2.83% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 0.4% compared with the end of last month. The unit current deposit has a certain positive correlation with real estate investment. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of real estate investment in December is expected to continue to narrow.
At the end of December, the year-on-year growth scissors difference between M1 and M2 was 5.5 percentage points, which was the same as that in November. It was still at a low level since the epidemic. To some extent, it reflected the flat investment of enterprises and residents' willingness to consume, and the recovery of demand was still slow.
Loan data show that the demand for entity financing is still weak. In December, residents' long-term and short-term loans decreased significantly year-on-year. Under the influence of the epidemic and other comprehensive factors, residents' short-term consumption willingness in November and December this year was significantly weaker than last year. Medium and long-term unit loans increased by 210.7 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and the willingness of enterprise capital expenditure is still relatively insufficient. However, in terms of year-on-year growth, the medium and long-term loans of non-financial companies decreased by 38.31% year-on-year, narrowed by 3.65 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the willingness of enterprise capital expenditure improved slightly.
The scale of new fiscal deposits in December was - 1030.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 76.2 billion yuan over last year. December was a regular month of fiscal expenditure. The policy tone of stable growth confirmed that the reduction of fiscal deposits in December was obvious.
In terms of social finance, the proportion of direct financing in new social finance increased. Although the new social finance increased significantly year-on-year in December, the new RMB loans decreased by - 111.2 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. The net financing amount of government bonds increased by 459.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the main increment of new social finance in the current month. The late issuance of government bonds in 2021 is still the main reason compared with that in 2020; Considering that there was no window for the issuance of special bonds in the first quarter of last year, and the probability of early approval of special bonds will be completed before the two sessions, social finance is expected to continue to be supported in the first quarter.
In addition, corporate bonds and equity financing of non-financial enterprises increased by 178.9 billion yuan and 99.2 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, and the proportion of new direct financing in social finance continued to increase. It is worth noting that the two-year compound growth rate of new corporate bond net financing in December was only - 21.3%. The main driving force for the year-on-year high growth of data came from the low base in the same period of last year. The Yongmei incident had a strong impact on the current credit environment. In December 2020, corporate bond financing decreased by 315.7 billion yuan year-on-year.
The financial data in December mainly reflected the following two characteristics: first, a number of financial data in December showed that the fiscal reserve grew steadily. Under the background of the high increase of fiscal debt financing, the new fiscal deposits in December decreased compared with last year, which reflected the continuous acceleration of fiscal expenditure and accumulated power for the steady growth in the first quarter. Second, the financial backwardness continues to support the growth of social finance, and the financing demand, especially the credit demand, is still relatively weak. It is necessary to pay close attention to whether the early credit stabilization policy will be effective from January to February.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The impact of the global covid-19 epidemic has expanded.
