Coal: off-season callback, active layout. Coal price: the price of power coal is under pressure, and the price of coking coal is stable, medium and strong. In terms of thermal coal, port prices rebounded this week and pit mouth prices fell slightly. On the supply side, under the policy and epidemic control, the transportation capacity of some mining areas is limited, the inventory pressure rises, and the pit mouth is dominated by supply guarantee and chemical procurement; In terms of the port, the Daqin line was reopened, but as it was close to may, the policy was inconsistent with the high price and the transaction was difficult. On the demand side, the traditional off-season superimposes the impact of the epidemic, the daily consumption of the power plant remains low, and the overall demand is weak and has not been fully released. In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to the downstream demand and the impact of the epidemic. In terms of coking coal and coke, the price is stable, medium and strong. On the supply side, the epidemic situation in Shanxi has gradually improved this week, the automobile transportation in the province has gradually recovered, and individual coke enterprises have increased production. However, due to the shutdown of some coal mines in Xiangning, Linfen due to accidents, the overall supply has been tightened; In terms of importing Mongolian coal, on the 4th of this week, Ganqi Maodu port cleared 280 vehicles per day, with an increase of 64 vehicles per week, and the short-term freight and Mongolian coal prices continued to rise; On the demand side, the epidemic situation has been repeated all over the country recently, the resistance of coal transportation is still large, the arrival of raw coal from coke enterprises is poor, and many factories passively reduce the storage. In terms of downstream steel mills, with the opening of all parts of Tangshan and the issuance of passes by the governments of Shanxi, Hebei and other places, the arrival of goods generally increased, but the increase of storage was slow and the procurement enthusiasm was still high. The sixth round of rising of coke enterprises has been implemented, and the demand continues to be strong, or support the follow-up rising space. Investment suggestion: callback in the off-season and actively layout. The epidemic situation is superimposed in the off-season, and the price of thermal coal is under pressure in the short term, but the overall pattern of coal supply and demand is still tight, and the prosperity of the industry remains high. Coal enterprises have successively released annual reports and forecasts of the first quarter report. The performance growth rate is generally fast, and most of them have exceeded expectations; Leading companies paid a high proportion of dividends, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market. Key suggestions of Yankuang Energy Co., Ltd; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) .
Nonferrous Metals: the fed further released hawkish signals, and the impact of China’s epidemic continued. 1) The US Federal Reserve released hawkish remarks, putting pressure on gold prices. During the week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the IMF meeting that it is absolutely necessary to curb inflation and restore price stability. The US Federal Reserve meeting in May will discuss the issue of raising interest rates by 50 basis points, suggesting that the US Federal Reserve may take active measures to curb inflation. Under the “hawkish” remarks of the US Federal Reserve, the US dollar index rose and the gold price fell. As of April 22, Comex gold closed at US $1934.3/oz, down 2.06% month on month; COMEX silver closed at US $24.259/oz, down 5.61% month on month; SHFE gold closed at 406.8 yuan / g, up 0.24% month on month; SHFE silver closed at 5098 yuan / kg, down 2.62% month on month. 2) The US dollar index put pressure on base metals, and the epidemic continued to impact China’s demand. During the week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released hawkish signals, and the US dollar index continued to rise after breaking through 100, putting pressure on the price of base metals; At the same time, China’s epidemic continues to impact downstream demand. The epidemic is still the main logic of market trading. In the short term, the supply and demand of base metals are weak. Specifically, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose or fell by – 2.5%, – 1.7%, – 2.5%, – 0.8%, – 2.7% and 0.0% respectively this week. The overall price fell.
Building materials: at the current time, we suggest paying attention to several main lines of building materials & new materials investment. First, the prosperity and performance fulfillment are selected from carbon fiber, quartz sand and glass fiber industries; Second, the marginal improvement of real estate policy, focusing on the layout of brand building materials; Third, cement and water reducing agent are selected for the main line of steady growth; Fourth, at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass industry cycle, with the support of cost, the industry basically has no downside risk; Float glass prices stabilized and rebounded while demand boosted. 1) In the field of new materials, the “limited overseas supply”, the explosion of demand in new energy fields such as wind, light and hydrogen downstream of carbon fiber, and China’s leading “grinding a sword in ten years”; Domestic leaders have finished catching up. In the future, capacity expansion and cost reduction will lead to surpassing in the civil field; And we believe that the business continuity in the field of small and medium-sized tow is high. High purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand increase + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand. 2) The glass fiber cycle is weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue (wind power, automobile and other strong support for demand), the price of electronic cloth has fallen to the bottom range, and the current safety margin is high. 3) The layout of brand building materials is at the right time. This week, we released Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) in-depth report “in the first year of management reform, gypsum board fixed capital + two wings” of size fly together “. The core view is different from the market: the market is worried that the high market accounts for the ceiling of gypsum board business, the downward pressure on the total volume is great, and the proportion of” two wings “business is low, and the competition is fierce. We believe that the strong pricing power of gypsum board is particularly valuable under the background of the rise in the price of upstream resources, It is worth looking forward to the changes brought by the deepening of the integration and high-end brand management of gypsum board business. The small “two wings” have strong synergy with the main business, the large “two wings” have broad growth space, and the undervalued value is preferred. Since the second half of the year, the valuation and performance of brand building materials have been killed under weak demand + capital pressure + high cost. In the absence of significant improvement in real estate fundamentals, the policy continued to relax expectations, the credit risk faced by the real estate chain and the pessimistic expectation of market demand were repaired, and the sector rebounded as a whole. According to the historical resumption, the end of the general real estate policy corresponds to the end of the valuation of brand building materials. The end of this round of policy / valuation appears in 21q4. We expect the end of fundamentals to appear in 22q1. On the cost side, the reserves of raw materials with leading low price can generally cover 22q1, and the recent easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine or the reduction of oil price can focus on the subdivision track with high correlation between cost and oil price. 4) The cost performance of cement allocation is high. The infrastructure development force and the marginal recovery of real estate under steady growth are expected to support the cement demand to maintain a high platform. However, the further coordination and optimization of cement core logic at the supply side in 22 years has generally strengthened the scope and intensity of peak staggering this year than last year, superimposing the high price center to maintain profitability and toughness. 5) From the perspective of water reducing agent, capital construction pull + gross profit margin rise + functional materials open up growth space. 6) The bottom price of photovoltaic glass still has upward elasticity. We are optimistic about the adverse expansion and cost competitiveness of leading enterprises, and focus on the profit elasticity and long-term growth brought by the expansion of traditional glass into the field of photovoltaic glass; The price of float glass has stabilized this week. In the follow-up, with the gradual recovery of demand, the price is expected to stabilize and recover.
Chemical industry: the price of crude oil has reached a new high, the global capital expenditure has warmed up, and the leader of the oil service industry has fully benefited: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) ; The rise in oil prices has led to the increase and expansion of chemical products prices, among which private large-scale refining has fully benefited: Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , while the relevant industrial chain represented by PTA polyester filament is expected to be driven by both cost and demand: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) .
The traditional bulk is still looking for the bottom, and the leading value crosses the cycle. As the main body of the chemical industry, the PPI of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry in March increased by 15.70% year-on-year, which was positive for 15 consecutive months. In terms of downstream demand, from January to December 2021, the newly started area of houses decreased by 11.4% year-on-year, 0.04% month on month in December, the construction area increased by 5.2% year-on-year from January to December, 6.32% month on month in December, the completed area increased by 11.2% year-on-year from January to December, and 184.9% month on month in December; From January to December, the national automobile output increased by 4.8% year-on-year; From January to December, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles increased by 14.2% year-on-year, with strong demand.
On the supply side, the investment in fixed assets in the chemical industry continued to grow. From January to December, the investment in fixed assets in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 15.7% year-on-year. It is suggested to focus on leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . With the improvement of health awareness, sugar substitutes have become the general trend of the times. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading food additives in the business cycle Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) .
Embrace innovation and reshape the supply chain of new materials. Scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to focus on the subject of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is suggested to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Steel: at present, the billet cost fluctuates in the high range within a decade. Among them, the biggest impact is the rise in global coal prices caused by the mismatch between supply and demand under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the epidemic limits the transportation efficiency, and the coke inventory of steel mills continues to break through the lowest level in history. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, six rounds of price adjustment of coke have been completed, with a cumulative increase of 1200 yuan / ton. In the lower reaches, due to the drag of the epidemic, the steel demand returned to the double-digit decline range in March, which is also an important reason for the rapid decline in the profit per ton of steel since March. This week, the national development and Reform Commission proposed that the output of crude steel would continue to be reduced in 2022. Driven by this, the transaction situation in the building materials market has warmed up, and the gross profit per ton of steel has rebounded slightly. From the perspective of actual demand, at present, all parts of the country are returning to work and production in an orderly manner, and the apparent consumption also shows a gradual growth trend. Moreover, the market generally expects that after the epidemic is controlled, the demand will be released in a compensatory manner, and the dual support of the raw material side and the demand side will make the steel price stable and upward.
Risk warning event: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Risk of coal import impact. Macroeconomic fluctuation, import and environmental protection and other policy fluctuation risks, gold price fluctuation risks, new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected risks, and the premise assumptions of industry supply and demand calculation are lower than expected risks. Macroeconomic downside risk; Demand is lower than expected; Excessive new capacity; Poor capital turnover. Macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk. The sharp decline of macro-economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase.
