In China's macro aspect, the national standing committee this week focused on food security and energy supply, and the Shenzhen Reform Commission stressed the continuous promotion of policy support for science and technology enterprises. LPR remains unchanged; At both meetings, the governor of the central bank proposed that the primary goal of China's monetary policy is to stabilize prices and employment; The implementation of the tax rebate policy of value-added tax at the end of the period was accelerated, and the support for export tax rebate was strengthened.
1. Xi Jinping presided over the 25th meeting of the Central Commission for comprehensively deepening reform (hereinafter referred to as the "meeting"). The meeting emphasized the development of digital technology and its application in government management and economy, and focused on the reform of financial system below the provincial level. It is proposed to "accelerate the construction of financial support innovation system", and in combination with the new scientific and technological innovation refinancing of the central bank, policy support for scientific and technological and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises and high-tech enterprises may be strengthened.
2. Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council to deploy measures to further improve agricultural production in spring to ensure a bumper harvest of grain and a stable supply of important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) crops (hereinafter referred to as the "meeting"). Focus on food supply and energy security. In terms of food, the meeting held that "China's food supply and reserves are sufficient, spring sowing is carried out steadily this year, and food security is guaranteed", and proposed to increase agricultural subsidies. In terms of energy, it puts forward the production capacity target of 300 million tons, re emphasizes guiding the coal price to operate within a reasonable range, and proposes to approve three new nuclear power unit projects, which are expected to stimulate the new infrastructure.
3. The general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the development of individual pensions (hereinafter referred to as the opinions). At present, China implements the framework of the "three pillars" pension system. The opinions on the development of personal pension are mainly to supplement and improve the third pillar. The highlights of the system mainly focus on four aspects, namely, participants, participation mode, payment level and pension can be used as investment. Functions: 1) it is a supplement to the first and second pillars, which can alleviate the payment pressure of basic old-age insurance and contribute to the construction of multi-level old-age security system. 2) The current tax preference has limited appeal to low - and middle-income groups. It is expected that the short-term scale of individual pensions is small and the incremental funds in the capital market are also limited. 3) In the long run, the development of individual pension is conducive to the sustainability of the pension insurance system, which can not only deal with the pressure of population aging, but also guide the long-term and healthy development of the capital market.
4. LPR quotation in April: both 1-year and 5-year periods remain unchanged. On April 15, the central bank announced its decision to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022, comprehensively reducing the reserve requirement by 25bp + targeted reducing the reserve requirement by 50bp, with a relatively restrained range. It is expected that the current monetary policy will focus on epidemic relief and structural support. In view of the cost space released by various monetary policy tools to banks, it is expected that LPR will still be reduced in the future.
5. The people's Bank of China and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development (hereinafter referred to as the notice). The circular proposes to "guide financial institutions to expand loan lending" and adopt a number of structural monetary policy tools directly to entities. The overall policy is biased towards wide credit. Specifically: 1) emphasize "increasing financial support for industries, enterprises and people affected by the epidemic", and the focus of monetary policy is to help enterprises rescue; 2) Pay close attention to the implementation of financial support entity policies, ensure the stable supply of food and energy, establish inclusive pension refinancing, and make good use of the entrepreneurship guarantee loan policy; 3) "Ensuring the reasonable financing needs of financing platform companies in accordance with laws and regulations" means that urban investment has been relaxed to support infrastructure investment; 4) To "implement policies according to the city and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market", it is expected that more regions will release relaxation policies for the real estate market; 5) "Increasing the proportion of private enterprise loans in newly issued enterprise loans" will help to improve the financing environment of private enterprises; 6) Monetary policy supports smooth logistics and promotes the stability of industrial chain and supply chain; 7) For stabilizing foreign trade, provide policy support for foreign exchange revenue and expenditure facilitation for high-quality enterprises, and propose to "improve the cross-border RMB use efficiency of enterprises, improve the exchange rate hedging management services of enterprises" to reduce the exchange rate risk of enterprises. In addition, the central bank pointed out that it should make efforts to speed up the payment of balance profits to the central government. As of mid April, 600 billion yuan had been paid, which is basically equivalent to the overall reduction of reserve requirement by 0.25 percentage points. Structural monetary policy instruments such as increasing refinancing are expected to increase the loan investment of financial institutions by 1 trillion yuan.
In terms of overseas macro, this week's overseas macro mainly focused on the interest rate increase policy of central banks, and Japan and Russia chose loose monetary policy; The United States implements a new round of sanctions against Russia; The expected growth rate of the global economy has been lowered, inflation expectations have been raised, and the risk of debt default has increased.
1. The Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are expected to increase interest rates, and the Bank of Japan and Russia maintains monetary easing. On the one hand, Bank of Canada governor tiff macklem said that he might raise interest rates by a larger margin on the basis of last week's 50 basis points increase; James Bullard, chairman of the St. Louis fed, said the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a time could not be ruled out. And hope to reduce the balance sheet as soon as possible at the upcoming fed meeting in early May; US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that a 50 basis point interest rate hike would be discussed at the May meeting; ECB president Lagarde said the ECB's net asset purchase may end in July or August, followed by an interest rate hike later this year. On the other hand, Elvira nabiullina, governor of the Russian central bank, reiterated on Thursday that the Russian central bank would consider further interest rate cuts in the coming months; The Bank of Japan said that as the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds hit the upper limit of its tolerance range, it will buy 10-year government bonds at a fixed interest rate of 0.25% on Wednesday. It is reported that the Bank of Japan will also buy bonds at a fixed interest rate for several consecutive days on April 21, 22, 25 and 26, and may increase its purchases on April 26. Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Friday that even if the yen depreciates, the Bank of Japan must continue its "radical" easing.
2. The world bank and IMF lowered their global economic growth expectations. David Malpass, President of the world bank, said on a conference call on Monday that the expectation of global economic growth in 2022 was reduced to 3.2% from 4.1% in January. The reduction was due to the expected economic contraction of 4.1% in Europe and Central Asia (including Ukraine, Russia and surrounding countries), compared with 5.7% in 2021. This week, the world bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held a spring meeting. At the spring meeting, food security, inflation, debt and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine were the focus of attention. Malpass pointed out that the world's largest economy has made slow progress in helping heavily indebted developing countries restructure their debts. In its world economic outlook released on Tuesday, the IMF predicted that global economic growth would slow to 3.6% in 2022, lower than the previous forecast of 4.4% in January, compared with 6.1% last year. The IMF pointed out that the risk of runaway inflation expectations is rising, prompting central banks to tighten monetary policy more aggressively. The IMF also warned that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine also increased the risk of a more permanent division of the world economy - divided by geopolitical blocks, each with different technical standards, cross-border payment systems and reserve currencies. This structural shift will lead to long-term efficiency losses, increase volatility and pose a major challenge to the basic rule framework that has dominated international and economic relations over the past 75 years.
In addition, important documents issued by local governments and ministries this week include:
1. Notice on the implementation of poverty relief support policies to promote the recovery and development of Tourism
2. Several measures on continuing to strengthen the assistance of small, medium and micro enterprises and accelerating the recovery and development of difficult enterprises
3. Guidelines for the construction of affordable rental housing in Beijing (for Trial Implementation)
4. Opinions on Banking and insurance industry supporting high-quality development of highway transportation
5. Guidance on strengthening the construction of Digital Government
6. Guidance on further promoting the reform of financial system below the provincial level
7. Opinions on establishing and improving the audit evaluation index system of natural resources assets leaving office of leading cadres
8. Work plan for improving the financial support innovation system during the 14th Five Year Plan Period
9. Several opinions on improving the incentive mechanism of science and technology
10. Guidance on further optimizing the business environment and stimulating the vitality of cultural tourism market players
11. Decision (Draft) on promoting the construction of comprehensive demonstration zone for the expansion and opening up of national service industry
12. Notice on financial services for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development
13. Questions and answers on the application of law in covid-19 pneumonia cases (2022 Edition)
14. Opinions on strengthening the fight against the illegal crime of telecom network fraud
15. Policies and measures on effectively responding to new changes and impacts of the epidemic and further assisting enterprises in their relief
16. Guidelines for epidemic prevention and control of industrial enterprises returning to work and production in Shanghai (First Edition)
17. Several measures of Shanxi Province to promote the recovery and development of difficult industries in the field of service industry
18. Action plan for promoting steady growth of industrial economy in Shanxi Province
19. Several measures on promoting the high-quality development of human resources service industry in our province
20. Notice on printing and distributing several measures to promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade in Hebei Province
21. Henan Province's "14th five year plan" for the development of modern logistics industry
22. Opinions on promoting the development of individual pension
23. Several measures on further promoting the integrated development of reclaimed land
24. Implementation plan for promoting the high-quality development of postal express industry
25. Action plan for invigorating industrial economic operation and promoting high-quality industrial development
26. Work plan on fully implementing the 2022 VAT rebate policy
27. List of high-quality development policies for "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in 2022 (second batch)
28. Work plan on strengthening the sharing and application of credit information and promoting the financing development of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises
29. Several policies and measures on accelerating the development of photovoltaic power generation
Risk tip: China's foreign policies are divided, and the implementation speed of China's policies is accelerated.
