Abstract: since late March, the global epidemic situation has improved significantly, the epidemic situation in the United States, Europe and Japan has dropped to a low level as a whole, the epidemic situation in South Korea and many countries in Southeast Asia has also dropped to a low level, and the recovery of the global industrial chain is expected to accelerate. The war between Russia and Ukraine continues, the global energy and food prices fluctuate at a high level, and the inflationary pressure in developed economies continues to increase. The US and China need to remain strong, and the Fed's attitude has become increasingly "hawkish". The 10-year US bond yield has risen rapidly to 2.9%, and the US dollar has risen sharply. With the formal promotion of the tightening policy, the US bond yield still has the ability to act, the short-term yield may rise more, and the US dollar also has the momentum to rise. The terminal inflation pressure in the euro area is controllable, and the impact of the Russian Ukrainian war on the economy of the euro area begins to appear. The European Central Bank maintains the path of gradually reducing easing policy, but it is still hesitant about policy tightening, the US European interest rate spread has expanded, so the euro has been greatly devalued, and the short-term support is still weak. The Bank of England continued to tighten policy, which alleviated the impact of the Federal Reserve's sharp tightening to a certain extent. The pound weakened slightly. Under the background that the policy tightening was basically digested by the market, the pound may weaken slightly in the short term. The epidemic continues to restrict Japan's economy. Japan's terminal inflation is mild, the Central Bank of Japan increases the purchase of bonds, and the interest rate spread between the United States and Japan rises sharply. Therefore, the yen is depreciated significantly, and there is still a trend of devaluation in the short term. China's local epidemic situation is severe, the policy remains broad-minded, the interest rate gap between China and the United States is upside down, the scale of domestic bonds held by foreign capital is accelerating to decline, and the demand for foreign exchange settlement is released due to the large trade surplus accumulated in the early stage, which supports the RMB to a certain extent. The RMB is depreciated slightly as a whole. Under the background of the gradual weakening of export toughness and the continuous outflow of foreign capital, the RMB may continue to depreciate slightly in the short term.
Key words: "Omicron" virus; Inflation; Federal Reserve; exchange rate
