Key investment points:
The macroeconomic data in the first quarter was less than expected, and the overall market performance was depressed: from April 18 to April 22, the main stock indexes of A-Shares collectively fell sharply, of which the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87% to close at 308692 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.12%, the gem index fell 6.66%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 4.19%, and the Kechuang 50 fell 3.22%. This week, Shenwan class industries generally fell, among which real estate, steel, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology led the decline. More than half of the industries fell by more than 4%, and only the textile and clothing industry rose against the market.
The epidemic continues and investors are cautious in trading: affected by the epidemic, macroeconomic growth slows down, residents' employment and income expectations are pessimistic, and their willingness to trade is weakened. During the week, the average daily trading volume of the two cities was 797752 billion yuan, a decrease of about 12.06% compared with last week. The market transaction this week was cautious, and the turnover rate of the main broad stock index fluctuated downward. In terms of industries, affected by the continuous spread of the epidemic, the transaction in the pharmaceutical and biological sector was active this week, with a turnover of 407394 billion yuan, ranking first for six consecutive weeks. Power equipment and basic chemical industry ranked second and third, with turnover of 285883 billion yuan and 280270 billion yuan respectively.
Investment suggestion: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again, and the "battle of Donbas" continues. The second phase of Russian military action is mainly aimed at eastern Ukraine, but its marginal impact on the global financial market has weakened. Last week, Fed officials said that austerity accelerated the fermentation of expectations. With Chairman Powell's statement that the interest rate meeting in May is expected to discuss a 50bp increase in interest rates, the US stock market fell. At present, the US dollar index has broken the 100 mark, the upside down of interest rate difference between China and the United States has deepened, the RMB exchange rate has fallen rapidly to the front line of 6.5, and the willingness of capital to flow into the equity market has decreased. In terms of economic data, in the first quarter, China's economic growth slowed down and enterprises were under great pressure. The unemployment rate in urban survey rose, with the unemployment rate in 31 major cities reaching 6%, exceeding the level during the epidemic in 2020. At the same time, the inflationary pressure has increased, especially the price of upstream products remains high, and the upward PPI will suppress the production of middle and lower reaches. At the same time, the price of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , grain increased significantly, which had a certain impact on CPI. Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said he would maintain prices in a stable range. China's epidemic prevention and control pressure is mainly in Shanghai. As a major industrial and service Province in China, it has a great impact on Chinese industries such as automobile and new energy. After the central bank cut the reserve requirement by 25bp, there was no further easing measures. The capital interest rate continued to fluctuate at a low level. The effectiveness of credit easing still needs to be verified by data. It is expected that the structural monetary policy will continue to work. Recently, the first quarterly report of the fund intensively disclosed that more funds were allocated along the two main lines of inflation and steady growth. In terms of industry allocation, it is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the steady growth and wide credit policy will continue to be strengthened, and pay attention to projects and leading enterprises in infrastructure and real estate sectors with abundant reserves and performance support; 2) Energy, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and other inflation benefiting industries.
Risk factors: increased geopolitical risks; The epidemic situation worsened; The economy fell more than expected.
