Events
On April 25, 2022, the Shanghai stock index fell by - 5.13%, falling below 3000 points; The gem index fell - 5.56%, the lowest since June 2020.
Key investment points
Reasons for market decline
Devaluation of RMB: the interest rate difference between China and the United States is upside down, the US dollar index has exceeded the highest value of 101 in recent two years, the RMB has depreciated sharply continuously, and the onshore and offshore RMB have both fallen below 6.5. However, the devaluation of offshore RMB did not cause a significant net outflow of funds going north, so the devaluation of RMB more impacted the sentiment of the market.
Repeated outbreaks: since April 22, a total of 70 new cases have been reported in Beijing in four days, involving eight districts. Chaoyang District is more serious. Some regions have improved control measures. On the one hand, the market is worried about tightening control, on the other hand, the expectation of "May Day" consumption recovery has been impacted.
Cold performance: the disclosure of the first quarterly report entered the later stage, and the companies with cold performance released quarterly reports one after another. The negative news that the profit growth rate was lower than expected and the year-on-year decline in net profit contributed to the market pessimism.
US stock sentiment transmission: on April 22, the three major US stock indexes fell sharply, with the S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow falling - 2.77%, - 2.55% and - 2.82% respectively. The negative sentiment of the external market was transmitted to a shares.
Market performance after A-share crash
After the market falls sharply by more than - 5%, it will form a falling inertia. It will take 5-20 trading days for the market to repair. The rebound space of the gem index is greater than that of the Shanghai index.
Focus on the Chinese version of "fanmg"
"Internal stagnation and external inflation" is still the main contradiction in the current market. The short-term market shock has worn the bottom, but it has been at the bottom in the medium and long term. The inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai was confirmed, the policies to promote consumption were introduced intensively, and the configuration window of large consumption dilemma reversal (Messrs reversal) was opened.
Risk tips
(1) the epidemic situation worsened more than expected (2) the steady growth policy was less than expected (3) the geographical conflict broke out on a large scale.
