Key investment points:
Overseas, the IMF lowered global economic growth, and the Federal Reserve continued to tighten expectations. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international monetary economic organization (IMF) lowered the global economic growth rate in 2022 to 3.6% (previously predicted to be 4.4%) in the latest world economic outlook report. Fed chairman Powell said that "it is appropriate to act faster" and "raising interest rates by 50 basis points is one of the options discussed at the May meeting".
In China, the monetary policy is stable and loose, and the local epidemic is still spreading. Yi Gang attended the international monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) meeting and said that the primary goal of China's monetary policy is to stabilize prices and employment. Price stability is inseparable from the support of monetary policy and the stability of the real economy. In terms of monetary policy, the people's Bank of China has always maintained that the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically match the economic growth, and the market interest rate remains within a reasonable range. The epidemic is still spreading in some parts of China, the epidemic data in Shanghai is still high, and the epidemic in Beijing has begun to ferment.
In terms of the stock market, the overseas index was weak, and the Chinese stock index continued to decline. Overseas, affected by the IMF's reduction in global economic growth, Powell's hawkish remarks and the continuation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the overseas market mainly fell. Among them, the Dow Jones index fell 1.86%, the NASDAQ index fell 3.83%, and the S & P 500 index fell 2.75%; France's CAC40 index fell slightly by 0.12%, while Germany's DAX index fell by 0.15%; The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.04%, and the Korea composite index rose 0.32%; The Hang Seng Index fell 4.09%. Affected by the decline in overseas markets, the spread of the epidemic in some parts of China and the fear of capital outflow caused by the rapid depreciation of the RMB, as of April 22, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87% last week and the gem index fell 6.66%.
In the bond market, the US bond yield continued to rise, and the US bond interest spread in 10Y was upside down. Influenced by the hawkish remarks of Fed chairman Powell, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds stood at 2.9% last week. For China, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds fluctuated slightly, closing at 2.81% as of April 25, and the interest margin of U.S. bonds continued to hang upside down in the middle of the 10-year period.
In terms of commodities, the price of oil and gold was adjusted, and coking coal led the decline of black five categories. The IMF lowered its global economic growth expectations, triggering a downward revision of the market demand side of crude oil, and oil prices adjusted last week. Gold also fell last week, suppressed by the continued rise of the US dollar index and the real interest rate of US bonds. In terms of China's black system, the national development and Reform Commission said it would continue to reduce the national crude steel output. Affected by this news, the prices of black five futures fluctuated last week, including rebar rising by 3.38%, thermal coal rising by 0.79%, iron ore falling by 2.05%, coke and coking coal falling by 6.75% and 17.70% respectively.
Asset allocation suggestions: for the stock market, it is still in the second bottom stage. It is suggested to find sectors with medium and long-term allocation value for layout in combination with the first quarterly report and future performance expectations. In terms of commodities, oil prices are still dominated by shocks in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to global economic growth, US and European energy sanctions against Russia, Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and OPEC production capacity in the medium and long term. Gold prices are under short-term pressure due to the impact of the US dollar index breaking through the 100 integer mark and the continuous rise of the real interest rate of US bonds.
Risk tips: geopolitical conflicts have intensified, the global epidemic has developed beyond expectations, the global economic downturn has exceeded expectations, the policy promotion has been less than expected, and the global liquidity contraction has exceeded expectations.
