Asset overview
The equity market continued to adjust, the bond market rose and fell, and the commodity market generally fell. In the equity market, the A-share market generally fell, including CSI 300 fell 4.19%, CSI 500 fell 5.43% and Kechuang 50 fell 3.22%; The trend of overseas equity markets was divided. Among them, the NASDAQ index fell 3.83%, the S & P 500 index fell 2.75%, Japanese stocks rose 0.04% and Korean stocks rose 0.32%. The bond market was mixed, with China Securities treasury bonds down 0.14% and China securities enterprises up 0.05%. The commodity market did not continue the rise of the previous period, in which SHFE rebar fell 1.68%, LME copper fell 2.55%, Comex gold fell 2.26% and NYMEX crude oil fell 4.50%. From the perspective of correlation, the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds has decreased, and the positive correlation between commodities and equity has decreased.
Latest views
In terms of macro influencing factors, the main positive contribution this week comes from monetary interest rate and international financial factors; The main negative contributions this week are price, economic growth, emotion and macro policy factors. Among them, the economic growth and price factors are reversed compared with last week, and the emotion factor is the main negative contribution factor for two consecutive weeks.
The net inflow of funds going northward decreased month on month, and the activity of financing purchase decreased. The net inflow of funds going north this week was 445 million yuan, and the net inflow last week was 2.878 billion yuan. As of April 21, the balance of margin trading and securities lending was 1.61 trillion, a decrease of 16.398 billion yuan over the weekend; Financing purchases accounted for 3.19% of the financing balance, ranking at the 10th percentile after the last three months.
By industry, the net inflow of capital from northbound to China ranks first in terms of computers, basic chemicals, power equipment, power utilities and coal, among which computers have changed from negative to positive compared with last week; The net outflow scale of electronics, banking, automobile, steel and building materials ranks first. According to the research data of the organization, the industries with high attention in recent four weeks are power equipment, communication, national defense and military industry, machinery, power utilities and other industries.
Stock index futures market. Among the major stock indexes on Wednesday, if and IH contract basis increased, IC contract basis decreased, the trading volume of the three stock index futures decreased and the positions increased.
The long-term interest rate in the bond market rose and the seven-day repo rate fell. The long-term interest rate rose 8.31bp to 2.84% this week; The short-term interest rate fell 3.76bp to 1.95%. The 7-day repo rate fell 15.59bp to 1.72% this week and 13.83bp last week, with a rolling 20 day average at the low level since this year. The interest margin of treasury bonds rose by 12.07bp, the term interest margin of CDB bonds rose by 13.84bp, and the credit interest margin of 3M medium and short-term notes – 3M CDB bonds fell by 7.82bp this week.
Commodity markets generally fell. Nanhua commodity index fell 1.32% this week, including industrial products index fell 1.42%, agricultural products index rose 0.03%, SHFE rebar fell 1.68%, LME copper fell 2.55% and LME aluminum fell 1.65%. COMEX gold fell 2.26% this week, showing a volatile trend in the past month. Compared with Comex gold, the performance of Nanhua gold index continues to differentiate, and China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) performance is poor. NYMEX crude oil fell 4.50% this week.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation worsened beyond expectations, and the quantitative model failed due to drastic changes in the market.
