Northward capital inflows slowed last week. The cumulative inflow of 159 million yuan in the four trading days last week was significantly lower than the net inflow of 2.736 billion yuan in the previous week. The recent acceleration of tightening by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of China’s economic expectations and the depreciation of the RMB relative to the US dollar are the main reasons for the northward outflow, with a greater impact on the trading market. In terms of splitting, the inflow of allocation disk last week was 196 million yuan, while the outflow of trading disk was 37 million yuan, which changed the trend of large inflow of trading disk at the beginning of this month. The buying and selling behavior of long-term and short-term funds tends to converge.
Northward overall: the inflow of coal and electricity increased relatively. Last week, there were 16 industry inflows and 14 industry outflows of northbound funds. Among them, the inflow of Dianxin (2.293 billion), basic chemical industry (1.176 billion) and coal (841 million) is the largest, and the outflow of electrons is the largest (- 2.568 billion). Compared with historical data, the inflow of coal and power sectors increased relatively, while the outflow of electronics, automobile and steel sectors increased relatively.
The industry allocation differentiation of allocation disk and trading disk has increased. The allocation disk focuses on buying banks and trading disk mainly sells banks, while Dianxin is on the contrary. Last week, there were 12 industries in the allocation of funds, of which banks (1.323 billion), food and beverage (966 million) and computers (931 million) had the largest inflow, and new power outflow was the largest (- 1.016 billion); Among the trading funds, there are 15 industries inflow, mainly to Dianxin (3.309 billion), and the bank outflow is the largest (- 2.297 billion).
Individual stock flow direction: the largest inflow is Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and the largest outflow is China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) . Last week, the inflow of the top three stocks was Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (2 billion), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (1.699 billion), China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) (785 million), and the outflow of the top three stocks was China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (- 2.646 billion), China stock market news (- 1.170 billion), and Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (- 797 million).
Cumulative statistics: in the past month, there were 11 industry capital inflows and 19 industry capital outflows. Among them, the inflow of Dianxin and banks exceeded 6 billion, and the outflow of medicine exceeded 5 billion. On a quarterly basis, the inflow of non-ferrous metals exceeded 10 billion, while the outflow of non-ferrous metals exceeded 2.5 billion in 10 industries, including food and beverage, medicine and computer.
North tracking strategy: in the special report “exploring the source of excess return of North funds”, we constructed the industry tracking strategy of Top50 based on North fund positions. As of April 22, the cumulative rate of return was 15.24%, compared with the excess return of CSI 300 of 19.43%, and the sharp ratio was 1.65. Based on the latest tracking situation, the change of northbound industry has not triggered the position adjustment threshold, and there is no need to adjust the position this week (see the text for the 14 position adjustment and income in History).
Risk warning: Based on historical data calculation, there may be data statistical error, and there may be failure risk under the change of policy and market environment.
