The recent superposition of multiple factors has had a significant impact on a shares. First, China's economy is weak, the steady growth policy is still in the transmission process, and there is no obvious signal of stabilization in the economy; Secondly, in April, China's reserve requirement reduction of 25bp was lower than expected, the interest rate reduction failed, and the easing policy was lower than expected, which made the market sentiment relatively depressed; Finally, there is the split of domestic and foreign monetary policies. The tightening expectations of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continue to rise. Since April 11, the China US interest rate gap has entered a negative range, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has exceeded 6.5, breaking the high since July 2021. The depreciation of the exchange rate also brings some downward pressure to a shares. Since 2007, we have seen three rounds of upside down of China US interest margin. Looking back on the asset performance in the stage, we can see that China's assets are facing certain selling pressure. The probability of rising of China's stock index is only 33%, the probability of rising of the US dollar against the RMB is 66%, and the probability of rising of wind commodities is only 33%. Among them, the performance of oil and oil is the weakest, all three samples recorded a decline, and the probability of weak performance of nonferrous metals and chemical industry is 33%. However, it should also be pointed out that the above samples are concentrated from 2008 to 2010. The time difference and number of samples are small, and the overall performance is only for reference.
Be alert to the impact of Fed tightening on global equity assets. On April 18, St. Louis Fed President Brad said that the current inflation rate in the United States was "too high", and the Fed needed to take rapid action to make the interest rate reach about 3.5% by the end of this year. He also pointed out that the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a time could not be ruled out. Previously, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March released the expectation of raising interest rates many times and significantly and shrinking the table in advance. It is planned to increase the scale of monthly asset reduction to $95 billion in three months, while the highest scale of the previous round of shrinking table is also $50 billion per month. The last round of shrinkage statement is obviously bad for equity assets, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of global stock index in the future. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with equity assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
At present, the downward pressure on China's economy is still large. On April 18, the Bureau of statistics released China's economic data for March. In the synchronous data from January to March, the growth rate of major sub items of investment, consumption and export slowed down comprehensively. The good news is that the steady growth of infrastructure has begun to exert its force, and it is expected to form a long-term and mild underpinning effect. In the forward-looking data, although the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale has rebounded slightly, social financing is mainly supported by short-term bills, and the growth rate of various loan balances of key financial institutions and medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents have not improved significantly. Under the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of offline consumption and service industry slowed down significantly. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in March increased by - 3.5% year-on-year, and the catering revenue fell sharply by 16.4% year-on-year. More importantly, residents' income and employment are under pressure, and the long-term driving force of the consumer side is further weakened, pointing to that after the resumption of work and production, consumption is difficult to repair quickly. At the meso level, in March, the land acquisition of national real estate enterprises fell by nearly 50% year-on-year, and the sales of excavators and heavy trucks still fell sharply year-on-year. At the micro level, our latest research shows that the recent national downstream construction has decreased year-on-year, but the month on month improvement is weak, and the characteristics of low peak season are significant.
In terms of commodities, under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, it is still necessary to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to pay close attention to the process of the situation in Ukraine and Russia, and be vigilant against the adjustment risks brought by the US dumping of reserves and the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations. Combined with the information that the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still in twists and turns, crude oil and crude oil chain commodities still maintain a high and volatile situation; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth, and with the support of dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; The first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is difficult to solve due to the superposition of high inflation in the United States, and the global precious metal ETF position continues to rise close to the historical high against the background that 10Y US bonds have exceeded 2.9%. We still maintain the view of bargain hunting and long of precious metals.
Strategy:
Commodity Futures: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, etc.) and precious metals are cautious; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: neutral.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; China curbs commodity overheating; The risk of Sino US game is rising; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; Iran nuclear talks.
