Nanhua macro weekly: what impact does the epidemic bring?

Affected by the epidemic, consumption continued to decline, especially service consumption, fell sharply again, the stabilization of real estate was more difficult, industry was impacted, the supply chain faced serious resistance, and finance was also faced with many difficulties.

At present, the evolution of the epidemic and its impact on the economy and the downstream demand side have become the focus of various market transactions. From the current situation, although there are signs of inflection point in Shanghai and the number of cases detected by the society is gradually decreasing, there are signs of expansion in the surrounding areas. In addition, the number of new local cases in Beijing increased sharply this week. The preliminary flow survey results show that the virus has been hidden and spread for a week, and there have been multiple generations of cases in the short term, which makes the whole situation complicated and confusing again.

At present, three weeks have passed since April. It can be expected that the impact of the epidemic in April on the economy will be greater than that in March, and the economy is still on the bottom of the journey. At present, we should not only pay attention to how the epidemic situation evolves and how epidemic prevention policies are adjusted, but also focus on how the upcoming Politburo meeting will set the tone and how to guide future economic work.

Risk tips: epidemic evolution, epidemic prevention policies and other relevant policies

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