Zhou viewpoint
This week (4.18-4.24), A-Shares fell unilaterally, the Shanghai index fell – 3.87%, and the gem index expanded again compared with last week, with a decline of – 6.66%, mainly due to the further strengthening of the contradiction of “internal stagnation and external inflation”. In terms of industry style, consumption is dominant, the cycle is at the end, and the logical recognition of large consumption repair after the epidemic is improved. The impact of this round of epidemic is wide, and consumption bears the brunt again, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) consumption has been significantly dragged down. Fortunately, the inflection point of this round of epidemic has emerged, and new cases have begun to decline.
After the inflection point of previous epidemics, the industry with reversal of plight has ushered in significant excess returns. The median excess returns of various industries are between 1% and 13%, and hotels, catering and scenic spots are relatively dominant.
The logic of “internal stagnation and external inflation” has been strengthened in the short term, the market continues to shake and grind the bottom, and the configuration value of the Chinese version of “faang” remains. In addition, the M: mess reversal in the post epidemic cycle ushered in the configuration window period, and the capacity of the Chinese version of “faang” was expanded to “faanmg”. Focus on post epidemic relief (hotel catering, new media consumption, scenic spots, transportation and logistics, etc.), recovery of service industry consumption (mass consumer goods), development of large-scale consumption (automobiles and household appliances, etc.), restoration of high boom industrial chain (tax exemption, beauty care, etc.).
Risk tips
(1) macroeconomic downturn accelerated
(2) the policy is not as expected
(3) large scale outbreak of geo conflict
