In the recent extensive exchanges with investors, it is found that institutional investors have not changed their preference and persistence for growth style. In the first quarterly report of the fund, institutional investors did not significantly reduce their positions in the configuration of high boom growth track, and even chose to increase their positions against the trend in semiconductor, new energy and CXO. Combined with our observation on the relevant contents of “fund investment strategy and operation analysis” in the Fund Quarterly Report, the key for institutional investors to judge the high boom growth track still lies in the support strength of the profit side and the performance fulfillment degree expected by the market. Even in the downward market environment, “with performance, performance exceeding expectations, performance hard enough and sustainable” is still the iron rule of institutional allocation. It is more recognized to guard the long-term return of investment rather than pursue short-term potential return. In fact, we found that Q1 institutional investors avoided high boom track stocks whose performance was lower than expected, but also increased their holdings of high boom track stocks whose performance could be realized. Objectively speaking, in the process of our communication with investors, we did find that many people’s doubts about the realization of high prosperity fundamentals have spread to the second half of this year, and the order of contributing factors: the negative effect of China’s epidemic prevention and control leading to the obstruction of the supply chain the realization of steady growth is lower than expected cost impact the deterioration of the industrial competition pattern the difficulty of improving penetration and market share there is a possibility of adjustment of industrial policies. Judging from the performance forecast of the current first quarter report, although a few high boom track stocks are less than expected to a certain extent, we believe that the performance fulfillment degree of most high boom varieties is still high. In the future, we still maintain the previous view of the original wind power high boom track: the boom is expected to shrink from multiple industrial chains and links in 2021 to a few industrial chains and links in 2022. In the evaluation of high prosperity, we have been taking the field of digital intelligence as a new direction.
According to our observation on the allocation behavior of Q1 public funds, there are the following characteristics: first, despite the sharp decline in the return on investment of Q1 high boom track, institutions not only did not significantly reduce their holdings of high boom track, but still showed the trend of increasing positions as a whole, and more internal structural adjustments were made, such as increasing holdings of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , reducing holdings of Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , etc; For the pharmaceutical sector, pessimism has been significantly repaired, including CXO traditional Chinese Medicine biopharmaceutical, covid-19 anti epidemic innovative drugs; Second, the second feature worthy of attention is that Q1 institutions have slightly increased the allocation of stable growth sectors, but it can be seen that the overall participation range is not high. Institutions’ cognition of the real estate market is more based on supply side logic than demand side logic. Third, it is worth noting that the third feature is that Q1 institutional investors have increased their recognition of the main allocation line of global inflation. Coal has the greatest consensus, and nonferrous metals (industrial metals) and other non-ferrous metals have increased their positions slightly. As a result of global inflation, the cost impact has been damaged, and the distribution of consumer electronics, automobiles, household appliances and machinery has been reduced. Fourth, in the downward period of Q1 market in 2022, the market has a relatively higher preference for large market value, undervalued value and weighted blue chips, especially for bank allocation, and the “feast of small and medium-sized markets” has come to an end temporarily.
Two trends of institutional allocation in the future: 1. Looking for high-quality growth in decline (long-term excess return); 2. Look for a certain trend (short-term excess return) in the rise, that is, the “low real growth + short duration” we repeatedly stressed before. Although it is still in the process of approaching from reality to expectation, and the market performance revolves around the policy expectation, it will eventually show the process of approaching from expectation to reality, the market performance will match the fundamentals, and the prosperity investment will return. The trading logic of short-term steady growth and global inflation will continue, and we prefer to follow the trading logic of “steady growth and high prosperity”. If steady growth cannot be seen to be substantially close to the established economic objectives, it is difficult for high prosperity to rise; At the same time, if steady growth is gradually implemented and expectations are fulfilled, the high boom is expected to usher in a turnaround. Signs of steady growth: 1. Two sessions and April Politburo meeting (Policy); 2. Industrial added value (Fundamentals); 3. Real estate stocks and consumer stocks stabilized and rebounded (transaction logic). In other words, in the process of steady growth, there will probably be a wave of excess market in real estate or consumer stocks, and then it will gradually transition to the direction of high prosperity.
Risk tip: the economic growth is less than the epidemic, and the epidemic in China is more than expected.
