Guide: according to the economic data released in March and the first quarter, the impact of the epidemic is superimposed under the downward cycle of real estate, and consumption and employment bear the brunt. The high probability of export pressure begins to appear, and steady growth needs further efforts. Shanghai has cleared up all social difficulties and gradually returned to work and production in an orderly manner. China's economy is in the transitional stage of phase 1 countercyclical regulation and phase 2 recovery of the Pringle cycle. It is stable first and then mature. The high dividend strategy is the shield, with small cap growth and special new attack. Third, grasp strategic opportunities and stabilize resources.
China: the impact of the epidemic is obvious, and infrastructure is making efforts to support the economy. Shanghai has cleared up all social difficulties and gradually returned to work and production in an orderly manner. 1) From the three-year compound growth rate of GDP and the month on month ratio, the decline of GDP in the first quarter appeared. The industrial added value in March was 6.5% year-on-year, and 7.5% from January to February, which continued to slow down. The GDP growth rate of 4.8% in the first quarter was significantly lower than the government target growth rate of about 5.5%. The impact of the epidemic in April was not reduced, and the impact on domestic demand was even worse. Subsequently, under the pressure of tightening in the United States, foreign demand may show a downward trend, and the macro-economy continues to be under pressure. 2) The epidemic has had a significant impact on consumption and employment. The unemployment rate in March was 5.8%, the previous value was 5.5%, exceeding the government's expected target of 5.5%. The unemployment rate of the population aged 16-24 was 16%, and it was 13.3% in March 2020. Social consumption increased by - 3.50% year-on-year and - 1.93% quarter on quarter (the worst since the release of month on month data in 2011). 3) Capital construction efforts to support the overall investment. In March, the three-year compound growth rate of fixed investment was 4.82%, compared with the previous value of 4.57%. The quarter on quarter ratio was 0.61%, higher than that in 2018 and 2019 and unchanged in 2017. Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of generalized infrastructure, manufacturing and real estate in March was 10.48%, 15.60% and 0.70%. It is expected that the implementation of special bond funds will be accelerated in the second quarter. Around the major national strategic deployment and the implementation projects of the 14th five year plan, the overall infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate; In the context of the downward trend of export probability in the future, despite the resilience of manufacturing investment, it is still under pressure; In addition, as the real estate cycle is in the downward stage, the probability of real estate investment continues to find the bottom. 4) The policy base was further consolidated. The central bank, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange respectively convey, study and implement the spirit of the special meeting of the financial commission of the State Council, and study and deploy the next work. It is expected to reach an agreement on the audit and supervision of zhonggai shares. 5) Shanghai has gradually and orderly resumed work and production. Since April 22, Shanghai has carried out nine major actions to eliminate social problems, and strive to achieve social elimination in the whole city as soon as possible. 70% of 666 key enterprises have resumed work and production.
Overseas: tightening expectations continue to ferment, and the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are at an impasse. 1) On April 16, Mariupol was controlled by Russia. Leaders of the group of seven, the European Union and NATO held a video conference on the situation in Ukraine on the 19th, believing that Russia and Ukraine should achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible. On the 20th, Russia said it did not trust the Ukrainian negotiators, and the Russian Ukrainian negotiations continued to reach an impasse. 2) The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits released by the U.S. Department of labor on April 16 shows that the labor market is still in short supply. Fed hawkish official St. Louis Fed President Brad said he did not rule out the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a time. In terms of asset prices, the 10-year tips interest rate became positive for the first time after March 2020, the depreciation trend of the yen continued, and the US dollar rose sharply against the offshore RMB, from 6.38 to 6.53. The RMB exchange rate hit the largest weekly decline since the 811 foreign exchange reform in 2015.
Market: the two financial institutions continue to flow out and differentiate into industries in the north. This week, the net inflow of northbound funds was only 445 million yuan. Although the substantial outflow stage has ended as judged by us, the wind is still low due to the suppression of US interest rate hike; As a whole, the two financial institutions continued to flow out more than 10 billion yuan, and the financing purchase amount accounted for 6.23% of the total a transaction volume, down from 7.14% at the end of February, which has gradually approached the previous low of 6% at the end of January. The mood of the two capital entities has not further warmed up. In terms of industry direction, there is no consensus between the two capital subjects. They are optimistic about the industry. The flow of capital to the North shows differentiation, and the inflow of power equipment goes against the market. The electron bears the common throwing pressure of the two main bodies.
Industry allocation suggestions: focus on strategic security and grasp the opportunities of steady growth, strategic resources and independent control. a. Policy driven steady growth: 1) real estate development; 2) Building construction; 3) Consumption of building materials. b. Strategic resources: 1) coal; 2) Oil and gas, oil service and oil transportation; 3) Gold; 4) Industrial metals; 5) Energy metals; 6) Grain Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . c. Self controlled long-term track: 1) wind power & Photovoltaic & nuclear power; 2) Semiconductor equipment and materials; 3) Military industry.
Risk tip: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, the persistence of inflation exceeded expectations, the tightening of liquidity exceeded expectations, and the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations.
