A shares were seriously killed in the second half of this week, and all major indexes showed a downward trend, with weekly declines of more than 3%. The indexes with small decline during the week were Shanghai stock index, Shenzhen Component Index, wandequan a, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Kechuang 50 and other indexes. The indexes with large decline during the week were Chuang growth, Kechuang entrepreneurship 50 and other indexes. All sectors performed poorly this week. Among them, only the textile and clothing sector recorded a red sector, and the other sectors retreated to varying degrees.
In terms of capital inflow, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, textile and clothing, commerce and retail, food and beverage, banking and other industries mainly showed inflow this week. The industries with the largest outflow are power equipment, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology, real estate, steel and other industries. From the perspective of concept sector inflow, the main capital inflows in the market this week are biological breeding index, prefabricated vegetable index, anti-tariff index, bank index, food processing index and so on. Agriculture, consumption and banking have become the mainstream investment direction of market funds this week. Northbound funds generally showed a weak net inflow, and the net purchase of foreign capital was 445 million yuan.
Comparison between market valuation and Industry: the growth pressure at the bottom of valuation is greater than that of small and medium-sized markets
The main indexes are at historical lows: this week, the Shanghai 50 Index PE is at the historical percentile of 44% and Pb is at the percentile of 40%. PE of CSI 300 index is at 40% and Pb is at 22%. The percentile of CSI 500pe is 1%, and that of Pb is 2%. At present, the PE of wandequan a index is 25.24, the historical percentile is 31%, the Pb is 2.48, and the percentile is 40%.
The downward market is better than the small and medium-sized market: in terms of the rotation of the large and medium-sized market, the net value ratio of SSE 50 to CSI 500 has shown a downward trend since February 2021, indicating that the overall performance of the medium-sized market has been better than the large market since last year. However, since the beginning of this year, the market performance has stabilized compared with the medium market, and the proportion of the net value of the medium market has rebounded. In terms of large and small disk rotation, the ratio of CSI 300 to Guozheng 2000 has generally shown a downward trend since February 2021, indicating that the small disk has been continuously and comprehensively stronger than the large disk trend in the past year. However, the data in the past two weeks show that the market is more robust than the small market.
Pressure on Growth Style: this week’s A-share style valuation index PE only saw a slight increase in consumption style compared with the previous period, while other styles ended down. PE of financial style was 7.01, down from – 3.07% in the previous period; The PE of cycle style was 16.80, which was – 1.52% higher than that of the previous period; The consumption style PE was 35.24, 0.13% higher than that in the previous period. The growth style PE was 44.64, – 2.67% over the previous period, with a significant decline in the near future; The PE of stable style was 16.01, which was -0.95% higher than that of the previous period.
Most industry sectors are at the bottom of the Valuation: in shenwanyi industry, the current PE level exceeds the historical 75% quantile only in the social services and automobile sector, and more than 50% quantile only in public utilities, food and beverage, beauty care, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and retail. The PE valuation quantile of more than half of the sectors is lower than 25%, among which the lowest PE quantile are communication, electronics and non-ferrous metals, and the current PE quantile is less than 1%. From the perspective of PE ratio of various industries, the PE ratio of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, public utilities, commercial retail, social services, automobile, beauty care and other industries is at a high level; Iron and steel, basic chemical industry, non-ferrous metals and electronics are in a low historical percentile.
Macroeconomic data:
China’s GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous value of 4%;
In March, fixed asset investment increased by 9.3% year-on-year, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous value of 12.2%;
In March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 3.53% year-on-year, 3.17 percentage points lower than the previous value of 6.7%.
Investment suggestion: the economic data of the first quarter shows that China’s economy is facing a certain degree of downward pressure. At present, exports are weak, manufacturing investment is slowing down, the real estate market is still weak, and consumption is relatively low. Under the impact of the epidemic, China’s economy may still be under pressure. We still believe that infrastructure and real estate are the driving force of stabilizing the economy, and pay attention to the banking, real estate and other sectors with marginal improvement at the bottom of valuation. In addition, with the resumption of work and production of the epidemic, the fundamentals of large consumption and manufacturing industry may improve, which may lead to the prosperity of relevant sectors.
Risk warning: the epidemic control is less than the expected risk, and the loose policy is less than the expected risk
