As of April 23, a total of 583 A-share companies have disclosed the first quarterly report forecast, with a disclosure rate of 12.1%, and the proportion of individual stocks with positive net profit growth has reached 74.4%, with a median growth rate of 55%; Among them, the disclosure rate of gem and Kechuang board is relatively high, more than 14%. The median growth rate of net profit of Kechuang board and main board is relatively high, 64% and 58.8% respectively.
Taking the individual stocks that have issued the performance forecast as the sample, excluding the extreme values, the year-on-year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of this year was 87%, lower than the year-on-year growth rate of 109% of the sample companies in Q1 in 21 years and higher than the compound growth rate of 33% in 19-21q1; Higher than 73% of Q4 in 21 years and 66% of the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company in 19-21q4; Excluding financial stocks, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 increased by 98% year-on-year.
The main board stocks account for 61% of the total sample companies, and the performance growth rate is similar to that of the whole a; The year-on-year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 of the gem sample company was 96%, which was higher than 90% of 21q and 39% of the compound growth rate of 19-21q1, but lower than 258% of 21q4 and 161% of the compound growth rate of 19-12q4. The high growth rate of Q4 in 21 was mainly driven by the large-scale performance of some pharmaceutical stocks and upstream resource stocks of new energy; The year-on-year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 of the sample company of science and Innovation Board was 266%, lower than 456% in the same period last year, but higher than the compound growth rate of 85% in 19-21 years, 146% in 21q4 and 71% in 19-21q4. Science and Innovation Board companies still showed strong growth momentum.
At the industry level, the consumer industry was the most affected by the epidemic: the pharmaceutical industry performed better driven by the high performance of covid-19 testing and vaccine stocks, while other industries suffered to a certain extent; At present, with the promotion of the “zero clearing policy”, the number of confirmed cases has reached the peak, and the epidemic situation has been fully controlled. After the release of the prevention and control policy, driven by domestic demand, it is expected that the consumer industry as a whole can achieve prosperity restoration. The overall performance of Q1 in the upstream cyclical industry is the best: benefiting from global inflation, the prices of upstream resources and energy remain high, coal prices and oil prices still have comparative advantages, and the high boom remains; Nonferrous Metals and chemical industry have benefited from the high momentum of new energy, agrochemical and other downstream industries and maintained high growth rate. However, because the price remains high, the marginal growth momentum is weakened. In the high-end manufacturing industry, the power equipment and military industry maintained a high growth rate, and the profits of individual stocks in the middle and lower reaches were eroded by the upstream to a certain extent, showing a marginal decline of high growth rate. In TMT industry, media and communication show a sharp rebound in landscape.
Investment view: at present, the market is in the bottom range, but domestic and foreign troubles are still on, and it is not out of the risk range. The short-term market is expected to continue to fluctuate; From the perspective of medium and long term, the current policy has reached the end, the valuation is at a historical low, and the market has a margin of safety; From the perspective of configuration, the short-term should still be based on the present, focus on defense, and pay attention to the medium and long-term new main line bred in the market clearing.
Allocation suggestions: since the market rebounded from the first bottom, the stable growth + inflation chain is still the main line in the short term, and its defensive nature cannot be verified. In the short term, it is still recommended to focus on defense and allocate the real estate industry chain, coal, agriculture and banking sectors; For the time being, the valuation of institutional heavy positions is still suppressed by tips, and the vertically undervalued TMT sector is still suppressed by rising tips because of its horizontal overvaluation. Therefore, in the short term, the growth sector will continue to grind the bottom, but in the long term, some high growth sectors have fallen out of space, which is a better time point for long-term layout; In the process of shock and bottom grinding, the market will also brew the main line of the next stage: we screen according to the win + odds framework, and suggest paying attention to the media, electronics, military industry and non bank in the medium and long term.
Risk tips: epidemic control or lower than expected, economic recovery or lower than expected, global contraction or higher than expected, performance or lower than expected, statistical data deviation, etc.
