Macro view:
1. China has the ability to establish an appropriate prevention and control system to deal with the changes of the epidemic situation.
2. The core driving force of capital inflow into the stock market is the expected upward return, which starts from steady growth and ends at normalization.
3. China's long-term economic goal will focus on the transformation of old and new driving forces, and steady growth and epidemic situation will fluctuate rhythmically under the big goal.
4. The epidemic has a great impact on the semiconductor and automobile supply chain in the short term, but with the gradual control of the epidemic in Shanghai, the supply chain is expected to recover gradually in the short term.
5. The economic policy of the United States is mainly to control inflation. After inflation falls, the income and expenditure of residents will improve and expand the consumption of service industry. The United States is unlikely to fall into recession, but the economic structure tends to be normal.
6. The change of U.S. monetary policy is still related to the recovery of the U.S. economy. The United States can still maintain economic growth in the process of curbing inflation, but the growth rate is relatively slow.
Market view:
1. The probability of A-Shares at the bottom is high, because the macro profit margin level is at the bottom of the long cycle.
2. The valuation of A-Shares is in the boundary between bull and bear, and the valuation level and growth value ratio are at the median level of long cycle.
3. Because the long-term volatility of China's economy has decreased, the style characteristics will be weakened. The essence of the style characteristics in the past few years reflects the changes of China's industrial trend, and the style characteristics will continue to be weakened in the future.
4. With the opening of the time window for M1 improvement, the risk appetite of the market will gradually improve, the trading will change from the current short logic to long logic, and the trading of high dividend yield strategy will end accordingly.
5. The supply chain of high-end manufacturing industry will be restored, and growth stocks are expected to be repaired in the short term.
6. The growth sector is at the bottom of a long cycle and will not be impacted by steady growth and style fluctuations in the long run.
7. Nasdaq 100 may return to the upward trend after the inflation expectation stabilizes.
