In the first quarter, China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4.8% year-on-year. As the investment community said: "past performance does not represent future results." In March, the outbreak caused by the Omicron mutant strain meant that quarterly GDP data provided very little information about the potential driving force of the economy. The monthly model shows that before slowing to less than 2% in March, GDP growth was quite strong in January and February this year, with an average growth rate of only slightly less than 6%. Almost all of the weakness in March came from the service sector. The speed of dealing with this covid-19 epidemic is a key variable in assessing the future economic trend. The good news is that the epidemic is beginning to show a downward trend.
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