Guojin macro united with digital future lab, the second issue of a series of follow-up reports on resumption of work after the epidemic: measures such as ensuring connectivity and smoothness and stabilizing the supply chain continue to be promoted, logistics continues to be improved, and production needs need to be repaired.
The epidemic situation has been repeated, the number of infections has increased in some areas, and the supply chain has been promoted to ensure smooth and stable industrial chain
The recent epidemic situation has been repeated, and the number of new infections in some areas has increased. This week (April 17-23), the number of new covid-19 pneumonia infections in China reached 149000, down 19% from last week; However, on April 22 and 23, the average number of new infections rebounded to 24000, higher than 19000 in the previous five days, pointing to repeated signs of the epidemic. Among them, the number of new infections in 11 provinces and cities such as Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Hebei and Zhejiang this week increased compared with last week, and the number of new infections in other provinces and cities this week decreased to varying degrees compared with last week.
Adhere to the general policy of "dynamic clearing" and the requirements of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council to maintain agricultural production and stabilize the industrial chain and supply chain. On April 19, the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council stressed that while adhering to the general policy of "dynamic clearing", we should focus on the deployment of important measures such as people's livelihood support, smooth freight transportation and industrial circulation, and emphasize the need to pay attention to spring farming production, maintain agricultural production and the circulation order of personnel and materials. Shanghai also stressed the need to ensure the normal operation of the core functions of the city and make every effort to resume production on the basis of grasping the epidemic prevention and control.
Baotong Baochang accelerated the promotion, shut down most of the toll stations, restarted, and steadily carried out measures to stabilize the industrial chain and supply chain. This week, the State Council held relevant working meetings on ensuring smooth transportation and stabilizing the industrial chain and supply chain to accelerate the smooth logistics; As of April 22, there were only 16 toll stations closed for expressways in all provinces and cities, a decrease of 662 compared with April 10. At the same time, the State Council also clearly stressed the need to stabilize the supply chain of the industrial chain, pay close attention to the supply and demand of key enterprises, and establish a white list of key industries such as automobiles, integrated circuits, consumer electronics and foreign trade enterprises.
Road logistics continued to improve, shipping activities in the Yangtze River Delta weakened, travel activities recovered, but consumption was low
Freight and truck logistics continued to improve. This week (April 17-23), the national vehicle freight flow index reached 89, up 5.2% from last week. Except for nine provinces and cities such as Heilongjiang, Ningxia and Qinghai, which fell from last week, other provinces and cities rebounded. According to the future lab data of Guojin digital, the national truck logistics intensity was 13.2 this week, higher than 11.96 last week; Among them, the truck logistics intensity in Northeast China and East China rebounded to varying degrees.
The navigation activities of ships in the Yangtze River Delta have weakened or are still disturbed by the epidemic, and the follow-up situation still needs to be closely tracked. According to the future lab data of Guojin digital, on April 24, the average speed of ships in the Yangtze River Delta was 4.39 knots, down nearly 10% from 4.87 knots on April 17, but up nearly 67.6% from the low on April 13. The average speed of bulk carriers and container ships decreased by 8.2% and 20.5% respectively; However, the lower level still rebounded. On April 24, the average speed of bulk ships and container ships increased by 51.1% and 103.3% respectively.
Urban travel activities have recovered, but catering consumption is still in the doldrums, the consumption in first tier cities continues to slow down, and the recovery in second tier cities is marginally improved. According to the future lab data of Guojin digital, last week (April 16 to April 22), the recovery intensity of urban travel rebounded. Among them, the recovery of travel in new first tier and third tier cities was relatively obvious, and the recovery of first tier cities was relatively slow. This week, the recovery intensity of urban catering continued to fall, with a relatively large decline in first tier cities; Meanwhile, the recovery of takeout in first tier cities was slow, and the recovery intensity of takeout in other cities continued to rise.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeds expectations, and there are errors or omissions in data statistics.
