Infrastructure investment helps steady growth
In the second half of the economic downturn in 2022, infrastructure will become the starting point to stimulate the economy, supported by policies, funds and projects:
(1) policy side: in 2022, the signal of policy steady growth will be released, the finance is expected to exert force, and the main line of steady growth is expected;
(2) capital side: the fiscal balance in 2021 is abundant, estimated to be about 1.5 trillion yuan, and the fiscal rhythm in 2022 is ahead;
(3) project side: the national development and Reform Commission requires the application of special bond projects in advance, and the reserves of major projects in all provinces and cities are sufficient.
The investment in infrastructure in broad sense has increased significantly, and the growth rate of new infrastructure is prominent
We estimate that the national budget funds in 2022 will bring an increase of 1.17-1.61 trillion yuan to the broad infrastructure.
According to the proportion of capital invested in infrastructure in the national budget and the proportion of capital in the national budget from which the capital comes, we calculate that the proportion of infrastructure investment that can be leveraged by the capital in the national budget is about 48.51%. Among them, the proportion of funds invested in infrastructure in the national budget is about 9%, and the proportion of funds from the national budget is about 18.55%. The calculation formula is: capital leverage in the national budget = capital investment scale in the national budget / capital investment in the national budget (9%) * capital investment scale / capital investment scale in the national budget (1 / 18.55%).
Under the guidance of the 14th five year plan, the new infrastructure was accelerated. It is estimated that the investment scale of new infrastructure in 2022 will be 2002.7 billion yuan, with an increase of 452.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of nearly 30%.
The inflection point of infrastructure growth has arrived, and Daji Construction Bank is expected
We resumed the market trend of previous financial forces. With the current round of financial support, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to face an inflection point in the first quarter, and the infrastructure market will usher in a small climax. The current round of infrastructure market will start with valuation repair and profit as support. Among them, the development of new infrastructure has entered an accelerated period and is more flexible as a whole.
Five investment mainlines jointly deduce the market of large infrastructure
In 2022, the increment of infrastructure will become the core driving force of economic contribution. We believe that the following investment lines deserve attention:
(1) in the field of transportation and water conservancy, the policy design list of "transportation power" and "national water network" is clear. Looking back on the past market, the financial force drives the steady growth of infrastructure and generates excess returns. Daji Construction Bank first has valuation and repair, and then has performance support. In terms of industries, architectural decoration and construction machinery perform better.
(2) transformation and construction direction of pipe network: the transformation and construction of pipe network is still a short board of sewage treatment. At present, there is a gap of about 400000 km of sewage pipeline. Combined with the average cost of 3 million for 1 km of sewage pipeline, there is a gap of about 1.2 trillion yuan in sewage pipe network alone, which is expected to bring excellent investment value to the environmental protection industry chain.
(3) energy sector represented by photovoltaic and wind power: we calculate that the investment in wind power and photovoltaic in 2022 will be 396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.6%. With the accelerated construction of photovoltaic wind power field, the performance is expected to rise.
(4) new energy infrastructure direction with ultra-high voltage, energy storage and intelligent charging pile as the core: policy support is superimposed, the issuance of energy bonds is accelerated, and the prospect of new energy infrastructure is promising. The scale of UHV industrial chain is expected to increase steadily, and the energy storage related fields represented by new energy storage may develop rapidly.
(5) new intelligent infrastructure with 5g, big data center, industrial Internet and artificial intelligence as the core: the growth rate of data center and industrial Internet slowed down slightly and entered the stage of steady improvement; 5g base stations and artificial intelligence are still growing rapidly.
Risk tips
The project progress is less than expected; The economy accelerated downward; The policy is not as expected; The epidemic broke out repeatedly.
