For the deployment of real estate in 2022, the central economic work conference proposed to "explore a new development model, adhere to the simultaneous development of rent and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies". The development of indemnificatory housing has entered the stage of rapid implementation, and has become the imagination space of the market for the growth of real estate investment in 2022.
Ping An View:
1. Sort out the development objectives of affordable housing at the national and local levels during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and then calculate the pull of China's affordable housing construction on real estate development investment in 2022. On January 11, 2022, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development introduced that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, 40 key cities initially planned to add 6.5 million units (rooms), which was lower than the previous general market expectation. Based on this, we predict that in 2022, the increment of affordable housing in China will be about 2.3 million units (rooms), forming a real estate development investment of about 336.38 billion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the total real estate development investment (predicted value) in 2021, that is, it is expected to drive the real estate development investment by 2.3 percentage points in 2022 (1.2 percentage points more than that in 2021).
2. Compared with the experience of China's last round of "affordable housing" in 2011, its macro background is similar to this round, and its policy focus is slightly different from this round. The key points that determine the growth space of affordable housing investment can be clearly determined from the process of the last round of affordable housing construction. Ten years ago, on September 28, 2011, the general office of the State Council issued the guiding opinions on the construction and management of affordable housing projects. The macro background of this "opinion" was similar to that at present, and the construction of affordable housing also became an important measure conducive to stabilizing real estate investment at that time. There are three main differences in this round: first, the last round of affordable housing construction was for low - and middle-income people across the country, while this round was for new citizens in big cities; Second, the current round of affordable rental housing construction focuses more on revitalizing stock resources through multiple channels in terms of land support policies; Third, the demand for "risk prevention" in the last round of affordable housing construction is not high, and the corresponding financial and financial policy support is greater.
From the course of the last round of affordable housing construction, it can be seen that how to support financial resources is very important for the growth of affordable housing investment. The new features of this round of affordable housing construction are: on the one hand, the strength of local special bonds in financial expenditure makes the financial support more imaginative than the previous round. On the other hand, banking financial institutions can issue financial bonds for indemnificatory rental housing loans. The difference between PSL and PSL through CDB is that PSL belongs to the basic money supply of the central bank, while the issuance of financial bonds by banks belongs to market-oriented financing, which is inferior to the monetary policy support.
3. Summarize the international experience in the development of affordable housing, so as to understand the possible direction of the medium and long-term development of affordable housing in China. We have preliminarily sorted out the development experience of affordable housing in the United States, Germany, Japan and Singapore. In contrast, the advantages of China's development of affordable housing lie in its strong policy guidance and government mobilization ability, but in mobilizing private force construction (mainly led by the government and public institutions at present), consumer support (at present, policy support focuses more on supply) There is still room for progress in the diversity and flexibility of financial support means (such as low interest loans and loan insurance in the United States, provident fund in Singapore, etc.) and the scientificity of the mechanism (giving consideration to fairness and efficiency as much as possible and maintaining sustainability).
