In the absence of fundamental and policy changes, the reasons for the obvious adjustment of the market (especially institutional heavy position stocks) before and after new year’s day are highly likely to be related to the capital game. However, it should be pointed out that the actual capital behavior is difficult to judge, and the resumption of market trend and turnover can only provide a market deduction idea.
1) from the trend of institutional heavy position stocks, institutional heavy position stocks experienced two typical stages of decline and sideways in mid and late December 2021. From falling to sideways, it is not ruled out that the heavy positions of institutions with funds to protect the market are ranked by the relative performance of the game; After the new year’s day in 2022, the heavy position stocks showed rapid adjustment. Previously, the fund switching or fuse of the heavy position stocks of the market protection institutions triggered negative feedback on the capital and heavy position stock market.
2) from the perspective of the proportion of the turnover of Baotuan 50 portfolio in the turnover of all a shares, there was a large-scale adjustment in the middle of December last year, and the proportion of turnover also maintained a relatively high level after entering the horizontal market in the last ten days, which does not rule out the situation of fund support. After the new year’s day this year, the Baotuan 50 portfolio showed a reduction adjustment, in which the fund switching of market protection was the main fuse. After January 10, the Baotuan 50 portfolio made a large-scale adjustment or the performance of negative feedback.
Looking back on the market trend of institutional heavy position stocks before and after new year’s day in history, the situation similar to this year’s trend occurred in 2011 and 2017 respectively. In other words, the heavy position combination of institutions in the middle and late December of the previous year showed a situation from decline to sideways rise, and there was an obvious correction after new year’s day. Before and after 2011 and the beginning of 2017, there were no significant unexpected changes in fundamentals and policies in the market. Although the central bank announced an interest rate increase in late December 2010 and the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase in mid December 2016, these policies were basically within market expectations and did not become the core factor leading the market in hindsight.
If we refer to the adjustment time of institutional heavy positions after new year’s day in 2011 and 2017, we expect that the current adjustment of heavy positions is coming to an end. Comparing the performance of institutional heavy position stocks before and after new year’s day in 2011, 2017 and 2022: the same point is that they all fell first and then stabilized before New Year’s day, and there was an obvious correction after new year’s day. The difference is that after the new year’s day, the magnitude and time of adjustment are different. For example, after the new year’s day in 2011, the adjustment period was 3 weeks, with a maximum adjustment of about 10%. After the new year’s day in 2017, it adjusted for 2 weeks, with a maximum adjustment of about 4%. The market adjustment speed is the fastest after new year’s day in 2022, with an adjustment of about 8% in seven trading days.
The adjustment is coming to an end. How to layout? The heavy positions of new energy and other institutions stabilized, with TMT on the left.
First, how to deduce the institutional heavy position stocks? There is a high probability of stabilization and recovery. From the deductive rhythm of institutional heavy warehouse stocks after new year’s day in 2011 and 2017, after the adjustment, the trend of heavy warehouse stocks relative to the market will be sideways for half a month, that is, heavy warehouse stocks and the market will stabilize and recover simultaneously. However, in the future, the interpretation of heavy position stocks presents two different trends. From February to March 2011, institutional heavy position stocks obviously lost the market, while from February to March 2017, institutional heavy position stocks obviously outperformed the market. The reason is that there are fundamental and policy factors behind the deduction of different paths of heavy position stocks. At present, there is no significant change in the fundamentals and policies of the heavy positions of institutions such as new energy, which has stabilized and rebounded or is a high probability event.
Secondly, the TMT plate with high cost performance is arranged on the left. TMT expects the plates with large difference, especially the communication and computer that prefer hard technology in TMT. First, the industry boom remained stable and upward; Secondly, the plate valuation is basically at the bottom of history; In addition, policies such as new infrastructure may become market catalytic factors. It is suggested to actively layout the core industrial chain: automobile intelligent industrial chain, 5gtob end application, information innovation industry, Huawei industrial chain, etc.
Risk tips: economic recovery is not as expected, macro liquidity contraction risk, overseas black swan event
