This report intends to examine the current market valuation from the changes of global important index valuation, A-share index risk premium and industry valuation.
Major global stock indexes: this week, the valuations of a shares, US stocks, Hong Kong stocks and German DAX decreased compared with last week, and only the valuations of FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 increased; The valuation quantile of US stocks is at a high level, while A-Shares are at a relatively low level. The historical quantiles of S & P 500pe (TTM) and Pb are the highest (53.90% / 91.20%), and the CSI 500 is at a low level (0.50% / 0.80%).
The valuation of A-Shares is in a relative depression. In 2022, A-share PE (TTM) was at a low level in the past four years. The historical quantiles of PE (TTM) of main A-share indexes were China Securities 500 (0.50%), Shanghai Stock Index (25.60%), gem index (27.80%), wind all a (33.50%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (37.30%) and Shanghai Stock Index 50 (42.10%) respectively; Compared with the previous week, the valuation of this week decreased. The gem index decreased the most (PE (TTM): – 10.05% / Pb: – 7.60%), and the SSE 50 decreased the least (PE (TTM): – 3.19% / Pb: – 3.37%); Since the beginning of the year, the decline of important A-share indexes has exceeded 10%, the contribution of valuation contraction has exceeded 80%, the largest decline of gem index is – 30.88%, and the contribution of valuation is 104.04%.
Industry Valuation: among the valuation performance of major industries, the valuation of this week decreased compared with that of last week. Among them, raw materials decreased the most, PE (TTM) and Pb decreased by – 5.22% and – 6.20% respectively, while industrial services decreased the least, PE (TTM) and Pb decreased by – 0.66% and – 2.78% respectively; From the perspective of CITIC industry, compared with last week, PE (TTM) in 25 industries decreased, PE (TTM) in 2 industries increased, Pb in 28 industries decreased and Pb in 2 industries increased. PE (TTM), commerce and retail industry decreased the most (- 17.95%) and telecom industry decreased the least (- 0.99%) this week. Compared with last week, PE (TTM) increased in textile and garment (1.13%) and electronics (0.77%); This week, Pb saw the largest decline in real estate (- 10.96%) and the smallest decline in food and beverage (- 1.47%). Compared with last week, Pb rose in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (0.50%) and textile and garment (0.04%).
The current PE (TTM) valuation of 18 CITIC industries is lower than the historical median, and the Pb of 26 CITIC industries is lower than the historical median. From the perspective of PE (TTM), the top three industries in the current value are comprehensive, computer and consumer services, and the bottom three industries are banking, steel and construction; According to Pb, the top three industries are food and beverage, consumer service and medicine, and the bottom three industries are banking, petroleum and petrochemical and construction.
Risk premium: the risk premium of the main A-share indexes has passed the historical average and increased this week compared with last week. Wind all a / Shanghai Stock Index / China Securities 500 / gem means that the current value of risk premium has passed the historical average; Compared with last week, the risk premium of the main A-share indexes all rose this week. The Shanghai 180 Index rose the most, 0.24%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose the least, 0.10%.
Risk warning: there may be errors in data statistics.
