Main views of overseas markets in a week: the global market shock intensified this week. It is expected that at this stage, the possibility of most global markets entering a technical bear market will increase significantly. The US stock market continued to adjust this week, with S & P 500vix rising 24.27% to 28.21. In addition, it is worth noting that a number of core assets of US stocks fluctuated greatly, Naifei and Facebook continued to withdraw significantly, and the volatility of large companies such as Google, apple, Eli Lilly and Pfizer pharmaceutical further intensified. At this stage, the pressure of the US stock market has gradually transmitted from second and third tier assets to the core assets of various industries. The growth stocks of US stocks will be further adjusted, the volatility of the information technology industry is still high, and there will be further shocks in the field of biotechnology. Among the value stocks of U.S. stocks, non essential consumption, finance, public utilities, industry and other fields in U.S. stocks have all experienced a correction this week. It is expected that the value stocks of U.S. stocks will fall further in the future, and the range of industries involved will be further expanded. Considering that the valuation level of US stocks is still high at this stage, the US bond yield curve has also been inverted, the US inflation pressure is still large, there is some pressure on the new financial report data of many companies, and the possibility of further tightening the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has increased significantly. It is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate in the future. This week, the European market continued to fluctuate, and the British market and Italian market, which account for a large number of value stocks, fell sharply. Considering that the European market is vulnerable to the linkage impact of the US stock market and the tightening liquidity of the European Central Bank, it is expected that the European market will be further adjusted in the future. From the perspective of emerging markets, emerging markets continued to callback this week, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 3.35%. Considering that the liquidity of the Federal Reserve is in the tightening stage and the liquidity of many overseas emerging economies has changed, it is expected that the stock markets of most emerging markets will still fluctuate sharply in the future, and there will still be significant pressure on the bond and foreign exchange markets of many overseas emerging markets. The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust this week. Considering the industry weight proportion in the Hong Kong stock index at this stage, it is expected that the volatility of Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China enterprise index will still be lower than that of Hang Seng technology index in the future. Considering the valuation advantages and good resilience of fundamentals, it is expected that Hang Seng H-share financial industry will still have a certain resilience in the medium term; Among them, the volatility of Hong Kong stock bank index is small. Considering the current capital construction cycle and economic cycle, it is expected that the construction project will have a certain toughness in the medium term; Among them, the volatility of large state-owned infrastructure related enterprises is relatively small.
Performance of US stock market in one week: all three major US stock indexes fell this week. The S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones industrial index fell by 2.75%, 3.83% and 1.86% respectively.
Performance of Hong Kong stock market in one week: this week, Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China enterprise index, Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese enterprise index and Hang Seng technology index all fell, with declines of 4.09%, 5.59%, 4.08% and 7.38% respectively.
Important overseas economic data: in March 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in Japan was 1.2%, the first time since 2018 that the growth rate exceeded 1%.
Risk tip: the Fed's monetary policy exceeded expectations; Economic growth is less than expected; The aggravation of global geopolitical problems; Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; Global black swan event.
