Summary of major core changes in prosperity
Consumer sector: the overall recovery of the economy, focusing on food and beverage
The overall recovery of the consumer sector. Moutai’s price narrowed narrower than the price, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) price rebounded, beer prices rose slightly, output increased seasonally, Baijiu production returned to the same period, sugar and edible oil output increased. Yiwu commodity price index fell slightly; The retail sales and wholesale sales of passenger cars continued to fall; In March, the export amount of furniture and its parts changed from negative to positive year-on-year; Pork and pig prices rose month on month, pig stocks and fertile sows fell, broiler seedling prices continued to rise month on month, and soybean meal prices returned to positive month on month; The Shanghai aluminum index fell month on month, the plastic index decreased slightly, and the steel price index rose month on month; The price index of traditional Chinese medicine increased month on month, the price of vitamin a decreased month on month, and the price of lysine increased month on month.
Growth sector: the boom continues to differentiate, focusing on new energy vehicles
The prosperity of the growth sector continues to differentiate. In electronics, the fee and a half index fell in shock in the past two weeks, and DRAM prices rose. In terms of communication, from January to February 2022, the overall operation of the communication industry was better, the growth rate of telecom business income increased, the total amount of telecom business maintained growth, the construction of fixed broadband network was accelerated, and the construction of 5g base station was steadily promoted. In terms of electrical equipment, from January to February 2022, the completed investment in power grid capital construction increased year-on-year, and the power consumption of the whole society increased slightly year-on-year. In the past two weeks, the price of silicon material and the price of photovoltaic industry chain have increased slightly. In terms of lithium battery materials, lithium fluorophosphate and DMC continued to fall in the past two Saturdays, and the high price of lithium iron phosphate fell. In the media, the film and TV industry continues to spread in the winter, and the March revenue is the tiktok of mobile applications. In terms of new energy vehicles, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in March 2022 far exceeded that of the same period in previous years, and the sales volume of EV and PHEV increased rapidly year-on-year. The price rise in March did not have a significant impact on the sales volume of the month, and the ownership of charging piles continued to rise.
Large financial sector: the overall boom is divided, focusing on banks and securities companies
The boom of the financial sector is divided. In terms of real estate, the interest rate of the first mortgage and the second mortgage in 103 mainstream cities in China monitored in April 2022 was 5.17% and 5.45%, respectively 17 and 15 basis points lower than that of the previous month. The land purchase area remained low year-on-year, and the willingness to acquire land was still low. In terms of banks, the stock growth rate of social financing scale in March was 10.6%, the total amount of social financing exceeded expectations, and the physical financing showed an upward trend. The short-term interest rate fluctuated, the long-term interest rate increased slightly, and the capital side remained relatively loose. In the non bank sector, the decline in premium income in February shrank slightly. The balance of margin trading and securities lending continued to decline, the stock turnover rate decreased, and the trading mood was low.
Cycle sector: the overall boom is down, focusing on building decoration and coal
The overall prosperity of the cyclical sector is downward. As of April 20, 2022, the commodity price index decreased slightly. By industry, in terms of coal, the futures price of main coal decreased slightly, and the level of port coal inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of steel, China’s iron ore and steel prices fell, the inventory level of rebar and wire rod decreased, and the steel output and capacity utilization increased; In terms of international energy, crude oil prices fluctuated slightly, natural gas prices continued to fall, the number of crude oil drilling rigs in the United States increased slightly, and the level of commercial crude oil inventories increased; In terms of non-ferrous metals, the prices of non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend as a whole, and the prices of gold and silver rose slightly; In terms of energy metals, lithium prices and cobalt prices decreased slightly; In terms of chemicals, the chemical commodity index has decreased in the past two weeks, the prices of polyester and PTA in chemicals have increased slightly, the prices of PVC and polymerized MDI have decreased, and the prices of ammonium sulfate have decreased; In terms of building materials, in the past two weeks, the price index of cement fell slightly, the market price of float flat glass fell slightly, the debt index of China bond and local government increased slightly, and the amount of Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) newly signed contracts increased year-on-year; On the other hand, China’s container dry index fell slightly in recent two weeks, while China’s international shipping index fell slightly.
Risk tips: the prosperity indicators of some industries fail to fully describe the prosperity of the industry, the economy changes too fast, leading to the lagging of the prosperity indicators, the deviation of the understanding of the industry prosperity, and the recurrence of covid-19 epidemic, etc.
