Event: according to the data released by the Ministry of finance, the national general public budget revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year in March 2022, 10.5% from January to February at the beginning of the year and 42.4% in the same period of the previous year; In March, the national general public budget expenditure increased by 10.4% year-on-year, 7.0% from January to February at the beginning of the year and 0.2% in the same period of last year. The national fund revenue decreased by 25.47% from January to February of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7% from January to February of last year; The national government fund expenditure increased by 43.0% year-on-year, increased by 27.9% from January to February at the beginning of the year, and decreased by 12.2% in the same period of last year.
The specific interpretation is as follows:
I. under the combined effect of the impact of the epidemic on the economy and the increase in tax reduction and exemption, the growth rate of fiscal revenue slowed down significantly in March; In the current month, the capital construction grew steadily and the fiscal expenditure accelerated.
In March, the fiscal revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a significant decrease of 7.1 percentage points from January to February at the beginning of the year. The main reason is that under the disturbance of the recent epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the growth rate of main tax revenue has declined to varying degrees. Specifically, the epidemic situation in Shanghai, Jilin and other places revived in March and spread throughout the country, with its impact exceeding any rebound since the Wuhan epidemic in 2020. The epidemic had a great impact in the short term, reversing the strong trend of macro data from January to February at the beginning of the year. In March, the consumption of goods and services directly turned into a year-on-year negative growth; Under the background of tightening epidemic prevention measures in various regions, the transportation and logistics in some regions are not smooth, and the production and operation of enterprises are greatly disturbed. As a result, China's value-added tax revenue fell by 4.0% year-on-year in March, compared with a positive growth of 6.1% at the beginning of the year; Under the impact of the epidemic, optional consumption such as cars and cosmetics, which is also the main tax object of consumption tax, slowed down significantly in March. The consumption tax revenue of that month increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 10.1 percentage points compared with January and February at the beginning of the year.
Shanghai port is the main import port in China. The tightening of prevention and control measures affects import declaration. In March, China's import volume showed a slight negative growth year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of import tariff, import value-added tax and consumption tax revenue in that month decreased significantly by 22.7 and 26.8 percentage points respectively compared with that from January to February at the beginning of the year. In March, the growth rate of enterprise income tax and individual income tax fluctuated sharply. The former increased by 45.7% year-on-year and the growth rate accelerated by 40.3 percentage points, mainly due to the low base in the same period of last year caused by the wrong period of final settlement and payment. In fact, the profit growth rate of various enterprises has decreased to varying degrees recently. In March, the personal tax income decreased by 51.3% year-on-year, compared with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% last month. There are two reasons for our analysis: first, the base number in the same period of last year was significantly high; second, the momentum eased in March after the individual income tax collection and management was significantly strengthened in the two months at the beginning of the year.
In March, the decline of the property market intensified, and the deed tax revenue was - 17.3% year-on-year, continuing the double-digit decline. However, the land value-added tax revenue increased by 25.7% year-on-year, changing the momentum of continuous year-on-year decline since August last year. We estimate that it may be related to the change of tax time point, and from the overall perspective of the first quarter, the land tax increase value is still continuing the general trend of downward growth. Shanghai and Jilin are both important automobile production cities. The epidemic has seriously disturbed the automobile industry chain. In March, the sales of passenger cars fell again year-on-year, and the vehicle purchase tax revenue of the month fell by 32.6% year-on-year. Overall, the tax revenue in March decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 7.2 percentage points compared with the previous value. The fiscal revenue of the current month is mainly supported by non tax revenue, and the main reason is that the balance profits of state-owned institutions such as the central bank have been significantly increased.
In terms of fiscal expenditure, expenditure in March increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 3.4 percentage points higher than that from January to February at the beginning of the year, indicating that the steady growth of finance is being strengthened. Among them, under the background of the impact of the epidemic on the economy and employment, the social security and employment expenditure in the current month increased by 10.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 5.7 percentage points. Recently, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment expenditure in fiscal expenditure is accelerating. Among them, the growth rate of urban and rural community affairs, agriculture, forestry and water affairs and transportation expenditure was 1.5 percentage points higher than that from January to February at the beginning of the year. In the same month, the science and technology expenditure increased significantly by 29.4% year-on-year, which is consistent with the policy orientation of increasing the support for scientific and technological innovation at the strategic level and focusing on solving the "neck sticking" problem.
On the whole, fiscal revenue slowed down and expenditure accelerated in March, reflecting the increase of fiscal countercyclical regulation in the process of increasing downward pressure on the economy. Among them, the slowdown of income is also directly related to the increase of tax reduction and exemption. However, the 1.5 trillion value-added tax rebate process was launched on April 1. In addition, the disturbance of the epidemic to the economy in the short term will continue. We expect that the fiscal revenue in April may have a negative growth year-on-year; In terms of expenditure, the phenomenon of infrastructure investment in fiscal expenditure in March appeared. However, at present, infrastructure investment is mainly borne by special bonds, and the proportion of infrastructure expenditure in the budget is declining. Major strategic layouts such as ensuring people's livelihood and supporting scientific and technological innovation are becoming the main growth point of fiscal expenditure. In fact, the strength of infrastructure investment in March was mainly reflected in the substantial year-on-year growth of government fund expenditure.
