Key investment points
Investment suggestion: at present, we judge that the market probability is already in the bottom range, but the market environment is more complex due to high inflation and repeated epidemics. We suggest paying attention to these directions: (1) cash assets. For example: high dividend and high dividend assets such as coal, real estate, banks, (Chinese prefix) construction, hydropower and communication operators; (2) The dilemma reversal sector independent of the macroeconomic cycle. For example, the pig breeding sector with the reversal of industrial cycle; (3) A sector with booming production and marketing. In the next 1-2 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (4) New energy and other track stocks. New energy and other track stocks are still in the stage of industrial explosion, and there are still certain investment opportunities, focusing on track stocks with performance support.
Focus on hot topics: (1) the national standing committee will deploy consumption promotion measures to boost consumer confidence. On April 13, Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy policies and measures to promote consumption, help stabilize the economic fundamentals and ensure the improvement of people’s livelihood. We believe that with the gradual easing of the current round of the epidemic, the approaching of the May Day golden week and local efforts to increase assistance to catering, retail, tourism and other poor industries, the consumer sector with a large correction range affected by the epidemic may usher in a certain opportunity. Relevant targets include: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) and Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , etc. (2) After an interval of eight months, the game version number will restart, and the game industry may usher in a marginal recovery. On April 11, the State Press and Publication Administration officially announced the approval information of domestic online games in April this year, and a total of 45 games obtained version numbers. On the whole, with the opening of the edition number, market confidence and the commercial performance of some factories may be repaired to some extent. However, the stricter and tighter game content and audit standards will further accelerate the survival of the fittest in the industry, the tail manufacturers may also speed up the liquidation, and the industry concentration of the head manufacturers with long-term operation capacity and product content reserves is expected to increase. On the other hand, the state has a positive attitude towards the game going to sea, and companies with strong certainty of the game going to sea are also expected to benefit. At present, the valuation of the game sector has continued to decline to an all-time low. With the resumption of version approval, market confidence and company performance may be repaired. Relevant targets include Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) and G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) etc. (3) With more policies, 5g new infrastructure may maintain rapid development. On April 13, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the 2022 work plan of the industrial Internet special working group. In the medium and long term, with the continuous increase of policies, the further improvement of 5g network coverage, the further expansion of 5g application scenarios, and the continuous high-speed development of 5g new infrastructure. Relevant targets include: Zte Corporation(000063) etc.
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics from April 11 to April 15, the top gainers are prefabricated dishes, general retail, intelligent logistics, food processing and beer. The main reason is the impact of the Shanghai epidemic and the state’s policies to promote consumption, and the relevant sectors are sought after. The top five declines were digital currency, virtual human, lithium negative electrode, photovoltaic glass and small programs, mainly due to the high current valuation of relevant concept sectors and the obvious adjustment of recent capital tightening.
From April 11 to April 15, coal, food and beverage, commerce and retail, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery ranked among the top five in shenwanyi industry last week; The top five declines were architectural decoration, building materials, power equipment, computers and communications. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are food and beverage, banking, steel, non-ferrous metals and beauty care. The top five cumulative net outflows are medicine and biology, basic chemical industry, mechanical equipment, power equipment and building decoration.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; The risk of repeated outbreaks exceeded expectations.
