Index
On April 20, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 315105 points, down 1.35%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 1139223 points, down 2.07%; The coal industry index closed at 292737 points, down 5.30%. The top three companies are: Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) , Sundiro Holding Co.Ltd(000571) , Yunnan Coal & Energy Co.Ltd(600792) . The steel industry index closed at 267812 points, down 4.11%. The companies with the top three declines are: Gansu Jiu Steel Group Hongxing Iron And Steel Co.Ltd(600307) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) .
Comments
The coal sector led the decline. Today, the price of coking coal fell due to the news of crude steel production reduction by the national development and Reform Commission. The coal sector also fell sharply. However, we still continue our previous judgment that there is still room for the rising coal market, mainly due to the two factors of enterprise profitability and the strong support of the current coal price. In terms of price, affected by the pricing mechanism of China long term association, the coal price center is expected to remain high in the second quarter. At the same time, the quantity of imported coal is smaller than before. The coal demand data in March continues to improve. The impact of the current overseas situation on the energy impact shows no signs of easing temporarily, and there is limited space for China’s short-term sharp downward price. Recently, with the announcement of the first quarterly report, most coal enterprises increased significantly year-on-year with the rise of coal prices. At the coking coal level, the downstream demand is strong and the profitability is strong. Under the current stable growth and dual carbon policy, coking coal may usher in a new round of opportunities. Related objects: Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Yankuang energy, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
Steel sector fell ahead. On April 19, the national development and Reform Commission said that in 2022, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of ecological environment and the National Bureau of statistics will continue to reduce the national crude steel output to ensure the year-on-year decline of the national crude steel output in 2022. Affected by this news, the cost advantage of steel raw materials is gradually reflected. With the continuous stabilization of coking coal and coke prices, the profit end of the steel industry will usher in the stage of bottom rebound. The national development and Reform Commission has made it clear that China’s crude steel output will decline year-on-year in 2022, and the supply and demand pattern of the industry will improve under the expectation of “steady growth”. At present, the valuation of Pugang sector is at the low level since 2013. We think the sector has good attraction or usher in a new round of rising market. Related objects: Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) .
Industry dynamics
In 2022, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of ecological environment and the National Bureau of statistics will continue to reduce the national crude steel output to promote the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry. (National Development and Reform Commission)
Company dynamics
Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) ( Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) ): the 2021 annual report was released. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 53.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.72%. （Wind）
Risk tip: the macro-economy is less than expected and geopolitical risks are escalating.
