Core view:
On April 20, the Ministry of Finance announced the national fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first quarter of this year. The national general public budget revenue in the first quarter was 6.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. Compared with the previous two months, the income growth rate of 10.5% slowed down; The national general public budget expenditure was 6.4 trillion, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, an increase of 7.0% compared with that from January to February. In March, tax revenue grew negatively year-on-year, and non tax revenue maintained a double-digit growth rate. Infrastructure expenditure has maintained growth, and the special bonds of local governments have made significant efforts. It is expected that the issuance of special bonds in the second quarter is expected to continue to accelerate.
Key investment points:
Revenue growth slowed in the first quarter, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating
On April 20, the Ministry of Finance announced the national fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first quarter of this year. In the first quarter, the national general public budget revenue increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down. In addition to the high base effect in the same period last year, the outbreak of the epidemic in many places in the first quarter, the increasing downward pressure on the economy, and the tax rebate and tax reduction policies all had an impact on the growth of fiscal revenue. The national general public budget expenditure increased by 8.3% year-on-year and is accelerating.
In March, tax revenue grew negatively year-on-year, and non tax revenue maintained a double-digit growth rate
In March, the tax revenue of a single month decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic and the tax rebate and reduction policy. The growth rate of non tax income further increased compared with the previous two months. Specific to the tax items, China's value-added tax grew negatively year-on-year in March, and the growth rate of China's consumption tax slowed significantly under the impact of the epidemic. The growth rate of individual income tax decreased compared with that from January to February, mainly because enterprises and institutions issued year-end bonuses and dividends earlier than last year, and the individual income tax was put into storage in February ahead of schedule. The growth rate of corporate income tax has increased. We judge that in view of the large-scale shutdown of industrial enterprises in Shanghai caused by the epidemic, the impact may not be shown in the data of the first quarter from the end of March to the beginning of April.
Expenditure on people's livelihood has been effectively guaranteed, and expenditure on infrastructure has also maintained growth
In the first quarter, expenditures in key areas such as people's livelihood were effectively guaranteed, and infrastructure expenditures also maintained growth, which also provided support for the rapid growth of infrastructure investment in the first quarter of this year.
The downward impact of real estate on local land transfer income
In the first quarter of this year, the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights in local government funds decreased by 27.4% year-on-year. Although it was affected by the high base effect in the same period last year, the impact of the continuous decline of real estate should not be underestimated.
Local government special bonds have made significant efforts
In the first quarter of 2022, the issuance scale of local bonds exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, including 1.3 trillion yuan of new special bonds, 89% of the quota approved in advance, accounting for nearly 36% of the annual quota, and a relatively high proportion of investment in the field of infrastructure, reflecting the policy demands of infrastructure development under the pressure of "steady growth". It is expected that the issuance of special bonds in the second quarter is expected to continue to accelerate.
Risk tips
The economy is lower than expected, the policy is lower than expected, and the epidemic situation outside China has worsened
