In March, CPI was 1.50% year-on-year, 1.30% expected, and the previous value was 0.90%; PPI in March was 8.30% year-on-year, 8.0% expected, and the previous value was 8.80%; In March, ppirm was 10.70% year-on-year, and the previous value was 11.20%. Our comments are as follows:
I. in the marginal sense, the CPI of pork and the CPI of vehicle fuel increased year-on-year in March;
2. The deterioration of covid-19 epidemic led to road control, which was the main reason for the year-on-year rise of CPI in March;
III. It is difficult for pork prices to rise significantly in the second quarter, but the year-on-year probability of pork CPI from April to June rose steadily;
IV. in April, the year-on-year probability of CPI fluctuated slightly on the basis of March;
V. in April, the year-on-year probability of PPI fell on the basis of March, and it is highly likely to enter the "7" era;
In June and April, the ppirm probability of chemical raw materials and textile raw materials decreased, and the international oil price increased in the medium term
Probability downlink.
Event: CPI in March was 1.50% year-on-year, 1.30% expected, and the previous value was 0.90%; PPI in March was 8.30% year-on-year, 8.0% expected, and the previous value was 8.80%; In March, ppirm was 10.70% year-on-year, and the previous value was 11.20%.
Comments:
Pork CPI and vehicle fuel CPI rose in a marginal sense, and CPI in March rose year-on-year in the same month
In March, CPI was 1.50% year-on-year, 0.20 percentage points higher than expected, and 0.60 percentage points higher than the previous value. The reading of 1.50% in March was a new high in the year, flat in October and December 2021, lower than 2.30% in November 2021, and the second highest value since October 2020. In terms of structure, food CPI in March was - 1.50% year-on-year, up 2.40 percentage points from the previous value, but in the historical low range, while non food CPI in March was 2.20% year-on-year, up 0.10 percentage points from the previous value, in the historical high range; In March, the CPI of consumer goods was 1.70% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous value, a new high in recent four months, but in the range of historical low, while the CPI of services in March was 1.10% year-on-year, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous value, a new low since July 2021.
