Event:
On April 20, the Ministry of Finance announced the financial revenue and expenditure in the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter, the national general fiscal revenue was 8.6% year-on-year, the expenditure was 8.3% year-on-year, the government fund revenue was - 25.6% year-on-year, and the expenditure was 43% year-on-year.
Comments:
Broad fiscal expenditure continued to accelerate, broad fiscal revenue remained in the doldrums, and government funds were significantly dragged down
Broad fiscal expenditure continued to accelerate, and general finance and government funds made concerted efforts. In March, the broad fiscal expenditure increased by 23.1% year-on-year, higher than 11.9% from January to February. Among them, the general fiscal expenditure increased by 10.4% year-on-year, higher than 7% from January to February; Government fund expenditure increased by 69.1% year-on-year, higher than 27.9% from January to February. Considering the base effect, in terms of the proportion of expenditure in the annual budget, the progress of general fiscal expenditure in March was 9.6%, higher than that in the same period of the past two years, and the progress of government fund expenditure was 7.9%, a record high in the same period since the data were available.
The broad fiscal revenue continued to be depressed, the revenue of government funds was significantly dragged down, and the general fiscal revenue also fell. In March, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, while from January to February, it increased by 1.8% year-on-year; Among them, government funds were significantly dragged down, with a year-on-year decline of more than 20% in the current month, and the general fiscal revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year, which was also lower than 10.5% from January to February. In terms of the completion of the budget in March, the completion rate of general fiscal revenue was 7.6%, slightly lower than 7.7% in the same period last year, and the revenue of government funds was 5.1% of the budget, a new low in the same period in recent years.
General fiscal expenditure focuses on people's livelihood and infrastructure related, and special debt drives the government to increase investment in infrastructure
Expenditure on people's livelihood and education remained high, and the proportion of infrastructure related expenditure increased, but the growth rate slowed down. Among the general fiscal expenditure in March, social security and education accounted for the top, accounting for 16.1% and 13.8% respectively, of which the social security expenditure increased by 10.4% year-on-year, higher than the previous value. In March, the proportion of infrastructure in general financial expenditure increased to 20%, 1% higher than that from January to February, but the growth rate of expenditure fell. The expenditure on transportation and urban and rural communities increased by 7.3% and 7.4% year-on-year, both lower than that from January to February, which may be related to the forward development and the interference of the epidemic situation, which needs to be further observed.
Central government fund expenditure is slow, and special bonds promote local government fund expenditure. In March, the expenditure of central government funds decreased by 12.3% year-on-year and the expenditure progress was 1.5%, while the expenditure of local government funds decreased by 70.6% year-on-year, higher than 27.1% from January to February, mainly due to the "dislocation" issuance of special bonds. In the first quarter, the issuance of special bonds was 1.25 trillion yuan, 34% of the annual quota. While the issuance of special bonds was accelerated, the investment in infrastructure was increased. The proportion of infrastructure such as municipal industrial parks, transportation, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy increased by 4.8 percentage points to 60% compared with last year.
Tax revenue slowed down, but the general fiscal revenue was generally completed well, and the land finance continued to drag down government revenue
In March, tax revenue slowed down, non tax revenue continued to increase, and the overall completion of general fiscal revenue in the first quarter was good. In March, the general fiscal and tax revenue decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, while from January to February, it increased by 10.1% year-on-year. The drag of value-added tax and personal income tax was obvious, with a year-on-year decrease of 4% and 52.3% respectively, or related to the impact of the epidemic and tax deferment; Non tax revenue continued to increase, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9% in March, higher than 13.7% from January to February. The general fiscal revenue completed the annual budget progress, which was 7.6% in March and 29.6% in the first quarter, which was a record high in the same period.
The income of local government funds continued to fall, and the land finance was significantly dragged down. In March, the income of central and local government funds decreased significantly year-on-year, by 27.4% and 21.8% respectively. The latter may be mainly due to the drag of land finance. The income of local state-owned land transfer right decreased by 22.9% in March. Accordingly, the land market transaction was sluggish. In March, the total transaction price of completed land in 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 41% year-on-year, and subsequent changes still need to be tracked.
Risk tip: the policy effect is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is repeated.
