A week's events
China: multiple departments have intensively introduced stable economic policies, and the policy expression of financing platform has been relaxed. On April 18, Liu He deployed ten measures to open up logistics blockages, financial support logistics transportation and promote supply chain stability, which is expected to accelerate the restoration of smooth logistics and supply chain stability; On the same day, the regulatory authorities required local governments to complete the issuance of most of the new special bonds by the end of June and the issuance of the remaining amount in the third quarter. The issuance progress of new special bonds this year has been significantly accelerated. It is expected that the issuance pace will continue in the second quarter; On the same day, the two departments issued a notice, proposing 23 policies and measures to strengthen financial services and strengthen support for the real economy, deploying sufficient force for monetary policy, relaxing the regulation of financing platform companies, and giving certain recognition to provinces and cities to stimulate the real estate market; According to the data on the 19th, central enterprises operated smoothly in the first quarter, and have faced more than expected downward pressure since March. In the next step, SASAC and central enterprises will continue to work around the two main lines of steady growth and risk prevention; On the 20th, the latest results of LPR were released. LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, and the market's expectation of interest rate reduction fell again, but the average loan interest rate continued to decline. Subsequently, the central bank will continue to increase the support of structural monetary policy tools such as refinancing; On the same day, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and others issued a notice, proposing to increase market-oriented financing support for highway transportation development in terms of project supporting financing, optimizing repayment arrangements, issuing ABS and REITs, participation of insurance companies and resolving the risk of stock debt. The financing policy in the field of transportation infrastructure should be relaxed, and REITs is expected to expand rapidly; On the 21st, the State Council issued the opinions of the general office of the State Council on promoting the development of individual pension, which defined the relevant norms of the individual pension system for the first time. It is expected that in the next step, relevant departments will also issue detailed rules to further clarify policies such as tax relief.
Overseas: the world bank sharply lowered its global economic growth forecast, and the Federal Reserve is likely to increase its tightening policy in May. On April 18 local time, the president of the world bank said that the global economic growth forecast for 2022 would be lowered to 3.2% from the 4.1% forecast in January, and the crisis response plan with a total amount of about 170 billion US dollars would be discussed in the next few weeks. At present, many countries are in debt difficulties, which does not rule out the possibility of further reducing the growth forecast of the world bank; On the 18th local time, St. Louis Fed chairman Brad said that the Federal Reserve needs to take prompt action and should raise interest rates by 50 basis points for many times. On the 21st, Powell also said that it is inclined to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May. The Federal Reserve is likely to increase its tightening policy in May, but it is still facing some uncertainty due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine; On the 19th local time, the European Central Bank released an economic expectation survey. Due to the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the economy, the euro zone will be reduced to 2.9% and 2.3% today and tomorrow. In addition, the inflation expectation will be doubled, and the monetary policy of the euro zone may be gradually tightened; On the 20th, the Boao Forum for Asia released its flagship report. Based on the endogenous driving force of Asian economic development and the unchanged long-term trend of China's economy, it is expected that Asia's economic growth in 2022 will still reach 4.8%, higher than the IMF's global expectation; On the 20th local time, the beige book on the economic situation of the Federal Reserve showed that the U.S. economy expanded moderately, employment increased moderately, demand remained strong, supply chain problems still exist, or will further push up inflation, and cost and supply chain problems are also important obstacles to the recovery of the U.S. economy.
High frequency data: upstream: the prices of Brent crude oil, iron ore and cathode copper increased by 1.43%, 1.27% and 1.30% on a weekly basis respectively; Midstream: the operating rate of blast furnace fell by 2.38 percentage points this week; Downstream: real estate sales increased by 22.72% on a weekly basis, and the weekly retail performance of automobiles was not strong; Prices: vegetable prices fell by 2.56% and pork prices rose by 1.29% on a weekly basis.
Focus next week: US commodity trade account in March (Wednesday); The initial annualized quarter on quarter value of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States and the policy interest rate of the Bank of Japan (Thursday); GDP of the euro zone in the first quarter (Friday); China's manufacturing PMI and non manufacturing PMI in April (Saturday).
Risk tip: the epidemic situation has further deteriorated, the geopolitical impact has exceeded expectations, and overseas inflation is high.
