Key investment points:
Market review, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25%, the gem index fell 4.26%, style level, the CSI 300 fell 0.99%, while the CSI 500 fell 2.46%. Overall, under the pressure of market risk appetite, the value sector is relatively strong. In terms of trading volume, the volume contraction trend was maintained. The average daily turnover of the two cities was 907 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 31.5 billion yuan; Among them, there was a slight inflow of funds from the north, with a net inflow of 2.878 billion yuan throughout the week. In terms of industry, coal, food and beverage, household appliances and Commerce and retail sectors led the increase this week; Electrical equipment, building decoration, building materials and other sectors led the decline.
In terms of data, China’s exports grew by 14.7% year-on-year in March, compared with 16.3% from January to February; The year-on-year growth rate of imports was – 0.1%, and the growth rate of imports from January to February was 15.5%. The resilience of exports mainly comes from the high price, while the sluggish import is closely related to the weak domestic demand under the impact of China’s epidemic. Although the high growth of trade surplus in the first quarter continues to support GDP, in the future, exports will gradually be subject to factors such as the weakening of overseas demand expansion, the slowing down of price boost effect and the reversal of order transfer effect, while imports will benefit from the gradual implementation of steady growth measures and the improvement of the epidemic situation, With the increase of the base superimposed on the trade surplus, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth in 2022 will fall quarter by quarter, or even a negative contribution in a single quarter.
In terms of policy, Li Keqiang chaired the national standing committee meeting on the 13th to continue to deploy measures to stabilize growth. The meeting pointed out that “timely use of reserve requirement reduction and other monetary policy tools” to help enterprises rescue. The management started a new round of RRR reduction when the interest rate spread between China and the United States is facing upside down risk, which is related to the current pressure of steady growth and the short-term fulcrum of RMB. Then, on the 15th, the central bank comprehensively reduced the reserve requirement by 25bp, the main purpose of which is to increase support for the real economy and help enterprises to bail out. Considering the statement of the head of the central bank that “the current liquidity has been at a reasonable and sufficient level” and “the central bank will adhere to the word of stability, strive for progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, do not engage in flood irrigation, and give consideration to internal and external balance”, at this stage, the inflation pressure in the United States makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50bp in May. Under the background of upside down interest rate spread between China and the United States, it is unlikely that China’s monetary policy will further reduce LPR.
In terms of strategy and periphery, the rise of US debt has brought about the rise of risk-free yield, which makes the overseas capital market still in high volatility. In China, the local epidemic has experienced a high passivation process, and there are signs of decline, which is helpful to stabilize expectations; At the same time, the steady growth policy is expected to be further strengthened. In addition to the deployment of monetary policies such as reducing reserve requirements and provisions, the national standing committee also emphasized stabilizing consumption and foreign trade. At present, the continuous development of the steady growth policy helps to boost market expectations and reduce the impact of the epidemic on the performance end. Looking forward to the future, although external factors still restrain the current market, short-term A shares may continue to fluctuate. However, at this stage, the risk premium calculated by the SSE index is at a high level, and higher risk compensation is conducive to the choice of long-term allocation. In terms of short-term industry allocation, the policy tone of “steady growth” has not changed at this stage. It is expected that under the continuous catalysis of policies, the “steady growth” sector will still be the main line of the market; Considering that the disclosure peak of the first quarterly report will gradually enter next week, we can pay attention to the sectors whose performance of the first quarterly report is expected to exceed expectations, and focus on the upstream links; In addition, we can also pay attention to the rebound opportunity of the automobile sector under the resumption of work and production in Shanghai.
Risk tip: overseas market fluctuation risk, economic downturn exceeding expectations, and global epidemic development exceeding expectations.
