The epidemic situation in Shanghai has the most obvious impact on transportation, leasing, information and other industries. According to the 2017 regional input-output table, among the industries invested in the national output diagonal in Shanghai, the industries with the highest direct consumption coefficient are transportation equipment (3.39%), transportation, warehousing and postal (2.03%), leasing and commercial services (1.95%), information transmission software and information technology services (1.78%) and gas production and supply (1.30%). In addition, the direct consumption coefficient corresponding to the transportation equipment in Shanghai can reach more than one percentage point for the national metal products, machinery and equipment repair services, the chemical industry in Shanghai for the national health and social work, and the leasing and commercial services in Shanghai for the national wholesale and retail.
Service consumption has the highest demand for transportation, and the contribution of road freight to all walks of life under the transportation subcategory is the most critical. We associate the 12 related industries in the input-output table involving “delivery, transportation, mail and warehouse” with the input-output of the other 142 subdivided industries: (1) downstream consumption, especially the consumption of service industries such as wholesale, retail, business services, science and technology promotion and application services, has the highest dependence on “delivery, transportation, mail and warehouse”; (2) The sensitivity coefficient measures the input degree of “delivery, transportation, mail and warehouse” required for a unit output of each department. We find that road freight has the greatest impact on various industries, with the sensitivity coefficient of about 1.37. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of multimodal transport and transportation agency, loading, unloading, handling and storage, postal, water freight and transportation assistance, and air passenger transportation is also more than 0.4.
At present, in terms of the factors affecting the meso boom, we need to pay attention to the main contradiction from the rise of crude oil price to the change of supply chain pressure. The “barbell” structure of profit growth in various industries from January to February 2022 is due to the rise of oil price, the high proportion of one-time consumption of crude oil in China and significant pressure on the profits in the middle reaches. The problems of supporting industries such as transportation, transportation, postal service and storage caused by repeated epidemics in some areas also increase the pressure of supply bottlenecks, which will have a certain spillover effect on downstream consumption, especially the consumption of service industry. It is necessary to pay attention to the switching from Midstream pressure to downstream pressure at the profit end.
Risk tip: the tightening of overseas monetary policy, the bottleneck of supply chain outside China, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other geographical problems are difficult to alleviate in the short term.
