This week's view: the central bank's RRR reduction is lower than market expectations, but it is in line with the central bank's monetary policy. The RRR reduction aims to alleviate the impact of the epidemic and international tensions on the economy, bail out enterprises and support the real economy. With the high incidence of epidemic in many places and the adoption of sealing and control management, China's economically advantageous regions such as Shanghai and Guangdong are affected. China's economy is greatly affected by sealing and control management and logistics interruption, and there is great pressure on economic growth. The RRR reduction is conducive to reducing the cost of real enterprises, especially supporting industries and small, medium and micro enterprises damaged by the epidemic, and boosting market confidence. At present, the market expects the fed to raise interest rates and start the table contraction in May, and the yield of 10-year US bonds will exceed 2.8%. In the context of the upside down interest rate spread between China and the United States, the relaxation of the central bank's monetary policy will be restricted. At present, it is difficult to reduce the price of international commodities, the price of oil is at an all-time high, and the pressure of imported inflation has increased significantly. At present, the central bank cherishes the space of monetary policy. After continuous RRR reduction in recent years, the current weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%, which is already at a low level, and there is insufficient room for further reduction. As many favorable policies have been implemented and market confidence has not been fully restored, it may take time for credit relief to have a significant effect. At present, the situation of epidemic prevention and control is grim, superimposed on the tense situation in Eastern Europe, the weak real estate market has dragged down the economy, there is great pressure on economic growth, and the market confidence is obviously insufficient. Recently, Xi Jinping clearly pointed out that we should achieve high-quality development of social security and bring more people into the social security system, which will help stabilize social expectations and boost market confidence. After analysis, due to the limited space for monetary policy to continue to be loose, under the background of the state's emphasis on steady growth, local governments will continue to increase fiscal policies and further increase their support for enterprise operation. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the relevant sectors benefiting from the RRR reduction, such as finance, infrastructure, etc. At present, the real estate policy in many places has been relaxed. The credit data released by the central bank shows that the confidence of the real estate market has begun to repair. It is suggested to pay attention to the real estate sector; As there is still strong uncertainty about the epidemic situation in China, we can focus on fresh food, e-commerce and cloud office in the short term; The epidemic will eventually dissipate. At that time, the service industry will improve, and the full support of the state will also promote the recovery of the service industry as soon as possible.
Hot spots in China: first, banks in more than 100 cities across the country have independently lowered mortgage interest rates according to market changes and their own business conditions. 2、 The central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022. 3、 Xi Jinping published an article in Qiushi magazine, calling for promoting the high-quality and sustainable development of China's social security undertakings.
International hot spots: first, covid-19 cases in most states of the United States show signs of rising sharply again. 2、 The European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged. 3、 American infectious disease expert Fauci recently wrote that the concept of mass immunity may not be applicable to covid-19 virus.
High frequency data tracking last week: last week, the stock index fell in an all-round way. The Shanghai stock index fell 1.25% to close at 321124 points, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.99% to close at 418875 points, and the gem index fell 4.45% to close at 246036 points.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation in China has deteriorated beyond expectations; The geopolitical situation continued to stir the market.
