In the first quarter of 2022, the growth rate of fiscal revenue fell and the growth rate of expenditure rose. In March, the growth rate of revenue decreased significantly and the growth rate of expenditure rose to a new high. From the income side, in addition to the impact of the rising base, the decline in the growth rate of tax revenue is the main drag. On the one hand, the impact of the epidemic on both sides of economic supply and demand has led to a decline in the growth of value-added tax, consumption tax and import revenue; On the other hand, factors such as the continued implementation of the tax relief policy for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry also pulled down the growth rate. The rebound in the growth rate of non tax revenue is related to the increase of special income of oil and mineral resources driven by the rise of bulk international crude oil prices. From the expenditure side, local expenditure is still the main driver, the expenditure progress is faster than the same period last year, and the issuance progress of local special bonds has also reached a new high in 19 years. Recently, under the influence of the Chinese epidemic and the rising prices of overseas grain, energy and other bulk commodities, the downward pressure on the economy has further increased, while prices are also at risk of rising, and there are many worries about loose monetary policy. Recently, local authorities have been required to complete the issuance of most of the new special bonds by the end of June, and the subsequent steady growth may place more hope on financial development.
The growth rate of fiscal revenue fell in March. Fiscal revenue growth in the first quarter recorded 8.6%, higher than the annual revenue growth target of 3.8%. However, the year-on-year growth rate of fiscal revenue in March fell sharply to 3.4%. Under the high base in the same period last year, the growth rate of central fiscal revenue significantly turned negative to - 4.1%, and the growth rate of local fiscal revenue slightly decreased to 8.8%; The growth rate of tax revenue fell sharply to 0.1%, and the growth rate of non tax revenue still rose to 14.8% under the high base. This is mainly due to the multi-channel revitalization of idle assets in some regions and the rise of energy resource prices, which led to the increase of special income from oil and special income from mineral resources. The year-on-year growth rate of fiscal revenue in March fell sharply. On the one hand, it was affected by the high base in the same period last year. On the other hand, tax revenue was the main drag, which confirmed that the economy weakened in March.
The growth rate of itemized income increased less and fell more. Among the main revenue items in March, the growth rate of value-added tax revenue changed from positive to negative under the superposition base of economic weakness; The growth rate of consumption tax revenue decreased significantly, which confirmed that the growth rate of sales of taxable consumer goods such as automobiles, cosmetics, tobacco and alcohol decreased in March; The growth rate of enterprise income tax rebounded from the low base; The growth rate of individual income tax changed from positive to negative with the increase of the base in the same period last year; The growth rate of import value-added tax and consumption tax decreased significantly, which confirmed that the import growth rate turned negative in March; The growth rate of land and real estate related taxes increased more or decreased less, among which the growth rate of deed tax, which accounts for a relatively high proportion, decreased significantly, and the growth rate of land value-added tax revenue changed from negative to positive.
Expenditure growth rose to a new high in March. The growth rate of fiscal expenditure in the first quarter recorded 8.3%, which was further close to the target value of annual expenditure growth of 8.4%. In March, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure rose to 10.3%, the highest since March of 21 years. Among them, the growth rate of central expenditure fell slightly to 4.4%, and the growth rate of local expenditure rose to 11.2%, also setting a new high since March 21. In March, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure rose to a high of more than double digits, and local expenditure made most of its contribution. The progress of local expenditure was at a high level in the same period in 14 years. In the first quarter, the issuance progress of new local special bonds hit a new high in 19 years, and nearly 90% of the new debt limit has been issued in advance.
The growth rate of itemized expenditure rose more or fell less. The growth rate of each sub item expenditure in the first quarter was more or less than that from January to February. Among them, the growth rate of expenditure on science and Technology (22.4%) was the leader, which was significantly higher than that from January to February. The growth rate of expenditure on transportation (10.9%) followed closely. Although it fell, the growth rate still exceeded double digits. The growth rate of livelihood related expenditure such as education (8.5%), social security and employment (6.8%) and health (6.2%) increased more than that from January to February. The decline in the growth rate of debt interest payment (- 0.1%) expenditure also narrowed significantly.
The decline in fund income growth narrowed. In the first quarter, the growth rate of government fund revenue recorded - 25.6%, which was slightly narrower than that in the previous two months. Among them, the growth rate of central revenue turned negative to - 7.9%, and the growth rate of local revenue narrowed to - 26.5%. The growth rate of land transfer income narrowed to - 27.4%, and the growth rate also narrowed in March, confirming that the growth rate of national land purchase area improved slightly in March, and the land transaction premium rate of Baicheng also rebounded.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
