Asset allocation report in the fourth week of April: risk pricing - RMB exchange rate may decline

Performance of various assets in the third week of April:

In the third week of April, most US stock indexes fell. Wind all a fell 2.46%, with a turnover of 4.5 trillion yuan, and the average daily turnover was the same as last week. Among the primary industries, coal, consumer services and food and beverage performed well; The performance of national defense and military industry, power equipment, new energy and comprehensive finance was lagging behind. The credit bond index rose 0.15% and the Treasury bond index rose 0.07%.

In the fourth week of April, the cost performance and trading opportunities of various types of assets were evaluated:

Rights and interests - the impact of the Shanghai epidemic on the supply chain has not been significantly alleviated

Bonds - the liquidity environment remains extremely loose

Commodities - long and short intertwined, and oil prices remained highly volatile

Exchange rate - the real interest rate of US bonds is close to becoming positive, and the RMB exchange rate may decline

Overseas - the month on month growth rate of core inflation continued to decline, indicating that the US bond interest rate is at the top

Risk tip: the mortality rate of Omicron is higher than expected; Economic growth fell faster than expected; Monetary policy tightened more than expected

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