In the first quarter, GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year, expected to increase by 4.8% and the previous value increased by 4.0%; In March, the industrial added value increased by 5.0% year-on-year, expected to increase by 5.1%, and the previous value increased by 12.8%; From January to March, the total investment in fixed assets increased by 9.3% year-on-year, the expected growth was 8.6%, and the previous value increased by 12.2%; In March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods fell by 3.5% year-on-year, is expected to decline by 0.8%, and the previous value increased by 6.7%.
The GDP performance in the first quarter was weak, which was mainly affected by the epidemic situation, weak domestic demand, decline in export prosperity and other factors. It is estimated that the GDP in the second quarter under the impact of the epidemic may still be less than 5%. If the epidemic is well controlled in the second half of the year, it is expected to achieve an increase of 5.5-6% or higher, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% in the whole year, driven by the joint efforts of infrastructure investment, stabilization of real estate investment and recovery of consumption under the recovery of the employment market.
The performance of the production side is lower than expected. The epidemic situation, weak domestic demand and decline in export prosperity are the main factors disturbing production. At the same time, the consumer side under the influence of the epidemic is still weak, and the employment pressure is increasing. In the short term, the impact of the epidemic on consumption has not been fully reflected in March, and the impact may be greater in April. It is expected that the short-term consumption will remain weak. On the one hand, it is the impact of the epidemic; On the other hand, with the expected slowdown in income growth, increased employment pressure and the remaining downward pressure on the economy, it is difficult for residents' consumption will to recover significantly.
Investment in fixed assets was better than expected. Among them, infrastructure investment is stronger than expected to boost the overall fixed asset investment, and there is still room for upward growth in the future; Real estate investment turned negative again, and sales increased negatively for the eighth consecutive month; Manufacturing investment continued to fall.
The recent policy has increased the impact, and the second quarter may usher in a downward turning point of the economy. In the past month, the four meetings of the Standing Committee of the State Council have all stressed the need to make efforts to stabilize growth; On April 15, the central bank reduced the reserve by 0.25 percentage points (some urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks decreased by an additional 0.25 percentage points), and the subsequent LPR may still be reduced. In the future, with the support of "steady growth" and "broad credit", the growth momentum may recover, and China's economy is expected to usher in a downward inflection point in the second quarter.
Risk tips: the central bank regulates and controls beyond expectations, inflation exceeds expectations, trade friction heats up, financial market fluctuations increase, economic downward pressure increases, the risk of epidemic changes beyond expectations outside China, the risk of overall deterioration of China US relations, the sharp deterioration of the international economic situation, the overseas black swan incident, etc.
